It goes without saying that the market is constantly fluctuating but changing trade policies and shifting economic data are fueling increased uncertainty. History shows that markets have weathered similar storms before – and even come out stronger. In this update, we break down the latest trade impacts, employment data, inflation trends, and what they all mean for your financial future.
Market Volatility Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Markets took a hit earlier this month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs went into effect – only to be delayed once again. This ongoing uncertainty has led to what’s been called a “tariff tantrum,” reminiscent of the “taper tantrum” in 2013, when markets panicked over the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow quantitative easing. But here’s what you should know: The S&P 500 has gained 4,000 points since 2013. Simply put, markets dislike change, and the past two years have been spectacular with little volatility. We’re now experiencing a correction as investors process trade developments in real time.
Trade Impact on GDP and Key Industries
Exports account for roughly 10% of American Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and recent shifts in trade policy have made a noticeable impact. A rush of imports in December altered the trade balance, contributing to a weaker GDP forecast for the first quarter. Industries such as agriculture and automotive could be hit hardest by tariffs. Too this month, markets reacted over the threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum – double the previous 25% rate. While this increase didn’t materialize, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy creates volatility. Beyond targeting individual sectors there is heavy retaliation to tariffs imposed by would be trading partners.
Employment Data and Interest Rate Outlook
The latest jobs data also signals potential headwinds. The ADP report showed that only 77,000 new jobs were added in February, significantly below the expected 162,000. The non-farms payroll report was better but still missed the forecast. And unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.1%.
These jobs numbers, weaker GDP, inflation, and weak consumer sentiment, have led to calls for three to four rate cuts this year instead of one to two. However, once the tariff situation stabilizes and markets regain their footing, the Fed is likely to refocus on inflation and maintain a measured approach to rate cuts. At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting the number of members who believe more than two cuts would be appropriate fell while the number of members who think less than two cuts are appropriate doubled.
Inflation Trends and Consumer Confidence
Inflation data offers a mixed picture. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a small increase, and over the past 12 months, the CPI has cooled from 3% to 2.8%. Meanwhile, the core inflation reading declined from 3.3% to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021. While inflation remains elevated, it’s moving in the right direction toward the Fed’s 2% target for now, not knowing how much tariffs will affect companies and the consumer.
Consumer confidence and labor shortages will be key factors to watch in the coming months. Modest improvements in government efficiency, declining interest rates, and lower energy costs will (hopefully) help markets perform better.
Staying the Course in Uncertain Times
With a lack of extended volatility over the last couple of years, a downturn now isn’t completely unexpected. The important thing is to remain patient and ask yourself, “Will markets be lower two or three years from now?” Staying focused on long-term goals and avoiding reactionary decisions will be critical in navigating the current market. If you have questions on your portfolio, don’t hesitate to reach out: 952-460-3290.
Jacob McCue
Investment Strategist/Advisor
Secured Retirement
