Courtney Saaf

The Biggest Risk to Your Retirement – and How to Protect Yourself

April 1, 2025 by Courtney Saaf

Now, this isn’t the most fun game to play, but if you had to guess what the biggest risk you’ll face in retirement was, what would you say? Maybe you’d guess healthcare costs or higher taxes. Perhaps you think the biggest risk you’re concerned about is Social Security.

But none of those are the largest risk you’ll face. The biggest risk to your retirement is called sequence of returns risk – and it can have a devastating impact on your retirement savings.

What Is Sequence of Returns Risk?

So, what is the sequence of returns risk, anyway? Sequence of returns risk refers to the danger of retiring during a stock market downturn. If the stock market is falling during the first few years of your retirement, the combination of stock market losses and the need to withdraw money to pay for retirement could deplete your nest egg. And unfortunately, even if the market eventually recovers, your portfolio may not have time to bounce back.

Without the right strategy, it’s possible you could find yourself selling investments at a loss just to cover your living expenses.

The Challenge of Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Once you reach a certain age, the government requires you to start withdrawing from your tax-deferred retirement accounts. These required minimum distributions (RMDs) force you to sell investments regardless of market conditions. If your portfolio is down when this happens, those losses become locked in, and you lose the opportunity to recover.

One way to minimize the impact of RMDs is to develop a proactive withdrawal strategy before you reach retirement age. Planning ahead can help you avoid unnecessary tax burdens and market-driven losses.

The Problem With Relying on Simple Withdrawal Rules

Many retirees have been told to follow the 4% rule, which suggests withdrawing 4% of their portfolio annually to ensure their savings last. However, this rule doesn’t account for market fluctuations. In years when the market is down, withdrawing at a fixed rate could accelerate the depletion of your funds.

A better approach is to remain flexible with withdrawals. During market downturns, withdrawing less can help your savings last longer, while in strong years, you may be able to withdraw a little more. Having a diversified withdrawal strategy is key to making your money last.

How to Protect Yourself

The good news is that you have more control over your retirement security than you might think. Here are a few strategies to help safeguard your savings:

Rebalance Your Portfolio: Many people set up their retirement investments and then forget about them. Over time, market shifts can create imbalances, increasing your risk exposure. Regularly reviewing and adjusting your investment mix can help ensure you’re prepared for different market conditions.
Consider a Roth Conversion: Unlike traditional IRAs and 401(k)s, Roth accounts allow tax-free withdrawals in retirement and aren’t subject to RMDs. Converting some of your savings to a Roth IRA could provide greater flexibility and reduce the impact of sequence risk.
Diversify Your Income Streams: Relying on a single income source in retirement can be risky. A well-rounded plan might include Social Security, annuities, bond ladders, dividend-paying stocks, and other income-generating assets. The goal is to have multiple sources of reliable cash flow so you’re not entirely dependent on the stock market.
Use Buffer Assets: Holding a cash reserve or other stable assets can help you avoid selling investments at a loss during downturns. Having a few years’ worth of living expenses in safer accounts can give your portfolio time to recover.

Build A Strategy That Prevails

A successful retirement isn’t just about how much you’ve saved—it’s about taking steps to turn your savings into sustainable income. By planning ahead, diversifying your income sources, and staying flexible with withdrawals, you can build a retirement strategy that withstands market fluctuations and gives you the confidence to enjoy your golden years.

Want to ensure your retirement plan is built to last? Let’s talk about how you can secure your financial future today 952-460-3290.

Staying The Course In Uncertain Times

March 26, 2025 by Courtney Saaf

It goes without saying that the market is constantly fluctuating but changing trade policies and shifting economic data are fueling increased uncertainty. History shows that markets have weathered similar storms before – and even come out stronger. In this update, we break down the latest trade impacts, employment data, inflation trends, and what they all mean for your financial future.

Market Volatility Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Markets took a hit earlier this month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs went into effect – only to be delayed once again. This ongoing uncertainty has led to what’s been called a “tariff tantrum,” reminiscent of the “taper tantrum” in 2013, when markets panicked over the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow quantitative easing. But here’s what you should know: The S&P 500 has gained 4,000 points since 2013. Simply put, markets dislike change, and the past two years have been spectacular with little volatility. We’re now experiencing a correction as investors process trade developments in real time.

Trade Impact on GDP and Key Industries

Exports account for roughly 10% of American Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and recent shifts in trade policy have made a noticeable impact. A rush of imports in December altered the trade balance, contributing to a weaker GDP forecast for the first quarter. Industries such as agriculture and automotive could be hit hardest by tariffs. Too this month, markets reacted over the threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum – double the previous 25% rate. While this increase didn’t materialize, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy creates volatility. Beyond targeting individual sectors there is heavy retaliation to tariffs imposed by would be trading partners.

Employment Data and Interest Rate Outlook

The latest jobs data also signals potential headwinds. The ADP report showed that only 77,000 new jobs were added in February, significantly below the expected 162,000. The non-farms payroll report was better but still missed the forecast. And unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.1%.

These jobs numbers, weaker GDP, inflation, and weak consumer sentiment, have led to calls for three to four rate cuts this year instead of one to two. However, once the tariff situation stabilizes and markets regain their footing, the Fed is likely to refocus on inflation and maintain a measured approach to rate cuts. At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting the number of members who believe more than two cuts would be appropriate fell while the number of members who think less than two cuts are appropriate doubled.

Inflation Trends and Consumer Confidence

Inflation data offers a mixed picture. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a small increase, and over the past 12 months, the CPI has cooled from 3% to 2.8%. Meanwhile, the core inflation reading declined from 3.3% to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021. While inflation remains elevated, it’s moving in the right direction toward the Fed’s 2% target for now, not knowing how much tariffs will affect companies and the consumer.

Consumer confidence and labor shortages will be key factors to watch in the coming months. Modest improvements in government efficiency, declining interest rates, and lower energy costs will (hopefully) help markets perform better.

Staying the Course in Uncertain Times

With a lack of extended volatility over the last couple of years, a downturn now isn’t completely unexpected. The important thing is to remain patient and ask yourself, “Will markets be lower two or three years from now?” Staying focused on long-term goals and avoiding reactionary decisions will be critical in navigating the current market. If you have questions on your portfolio, don’t hesitate to reach out: 952-460-3290.

Jacob McCue

Investment Strategist/Advisor
Secured Retirement

Upsets Happen – Make Sure Your Retirement Plan is Ready

March 18, 2025 by Courtney Saaf

Well, have you made your bracket yet? It’s March, after all! Around the office, we always enjoy following the March Madness tournament. And we’ve been known to put a little money on the games as well – “little” being the operative word. It’s part of the fun!

With a junior in high school applying to colleges and developing post-secondary plans, I’m looking at the tournament a little differently this year. I want his top-choice schools to do well! My Cinderella favorite is High Point University out of North Carolina. It’s their first time ever in tourney and while they’re seeded 13th, I’m rooting for them.

Historically, the odds of a 13th seed upsetting their first-round opponent – 4th-seeded Purdue in this case – are low but not impossible. If by some miracle they were to take the whole tourney, I have no doubt I would win any NCAA pool out there, but statistically, the odds are way against me. Some of the other schools my son is considering (Kansas, Tennessee) have slim-yet-better chances.

However, the thrill of following the tournament is that no one really knows how it’s going to go. Never before in its more than 80 years has there ever been a perfect bracket. The odds of picking all the winners correctly are astronomical.

This has a way of balancing the playing field across bracket-makers. Even if you don’t know a single thing about basketball and are choosing your winners based on which team colors you like more, you might still come out ahead in your office pool.

Experts analyze stats, odds are set, and predictions are made but upsets always happen. Some underdog team you’ve never heard of will manage to pull off the impossible and knock out a top seed.

March Madness reminds us that anything can happen. And just like an underdog can shake up the tournament, unexpected changes can throw off your financial future. You don’t want market volatility, economic downturns, or tax changes throwing your future off course. The best game plan is one that holds up no matter what – no matter what the economy is doing, no matter what the housing market looks like, no matter where life takes you.

At Secured Retirement, our playbook is designed to keep you winning. Our approach has always focused on balancing the pillars of wealth management – income and investment strategy, taxes and charitable planning, healthcare and legacy – to protect you from vulnerabilities and keep you on track.

Because when it comes to your retirement, you don’t want to leave anything to chance. A solid financial strategy ensures you’re prepared for whatever comes your way.

So while your bracket may be busted by the Sweet 16, your retirement plan shouldn’t be. Let’s make sure you have a winning strategy. Call us: 952-460-3290

CUP OF JOE

From Joe Lucey, Founder of Secured Retirement

There’s something about sitting down with a steaming cup of coffee that always kicks my day into high gear. And it’s not just because of the caffeine it sends coursing through my veins.

Throughout my career, some of my biggest revelations have come to me in conversation with my mentor over a cup of joe. Good conversation and personal connection can pick you up in a special way. It’s that feeling that I’m hoping to bring to you with my series, your Cup of Joe.

The Market’s Ride into 2025 – The Latest Forecast

February 24, 2025 by Courtney Saaf

Jake McCue here! I’m pleased to be contributing to Secured Retirement’s Market Forecasts and I couldn’t be happier to work with this esteemed group of professionals. I’m an Investment Strategist, Financial Advisor, CFA Charterholder, and Certified Financial Planner who’s been in the business for more than 10 years. I look forward to bringing you these updates so that you can stay informed, and understand what we’re following and what it could mean for your financial future. We want to provide insights that offer peace of mind – so you can get back to enjoying life. If you’re interested in digging into the details, my door is open to those who nerd out on this stuff. Without further ado, here’s my update on the current market.

The Labor Market

As you may have heard, The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is making waves at federal agencies with layoffs and budget cuts. Ultimately, the workforce reduction at federal agencies accounts for a small fraction of the overall workforce – something like 2%, per nonfarm payroll data. The labor market, along with inflation, remains an important component in Federal Reserve decision-making. At the January 29th press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the labor market as “stable” and “broadly in balance.”

It’s worth remembering that last year’s biggest rate cut followed a surprise uptick in unemployment data. If we see headcount reduction without other hiring – also known as market softness – that could move the needle and push the Fed to act this year, the Chairman explained. Meanwhile, the Core Personal Consumption Index is holding steady at 3.3%, a January 12-month increase, reinforcing the Fed’s current wait-and-see approach on rate cuts.

Earnings

Fourth-quarter earnings in 2024 surpassed estimates and, as of mid-February, investors witnessed year-over-year growth at levels not seen in years. With 70% of S&P 500 companies reporting, sectors like Communication Services and Financials are among the leading sectors, delivering earnings that surprise at above the ten-year average. Earnings growth has been broad, spanning nine of eleven sectors, though Industrials and Materials have seen revenue declines.

While this earnings season has been strong, we see valuations running high – forward price-to-earnings ratios sit above both five- and ten-year averages. The blend of actual and still-to-report estimates is quite strong for the quarter, but with no immediate support from the Fed and potential hurdles with earnings on the horizon, the next few quarters may bring new challenges.

Market Momentum

The S&P 500 has been trading in a narrow range over the last few months in what technical analysts call a “flag” pattern. A setup that often precedes a bull market breaking out through recent highs. However, momentum has been weak, with less than 60% of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving average. We’re also watching small-cap stocks for signs of broader participation in the rally, but so far, they haven’t outperformed.

Administration Policy & Tariffs

With Donald Trump officially back in office, we’ve already seen a flurry of executive actions that will surely shape policy for years to come. One current unknown is the effect the administration’s stance on tariffs and international trade will have on markets. Their current position, threats, and delays to enacting tariffs all play into tactics that will flow to companies and ultimately, to the consumer.

During Trump’s first term, steel and aluminum tariffs had a limited economic impact, but broader protectionist policies, like securing control of the Panama Canal and key global trade routes, could reshape supply chains and set up wider advantage for goods from China, for instance. The trade deficit surged 25% in December over the previous month as companies rushed to stockpile inventory. GDP growth is still increasing over 2% annually.

At the AI Action Summit in Paris, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the administration’s focus on ensuring the most powerful AI systems are built in the U.S. with domestically designed and manufactured chips. These chips are the processors in much of our personal technology, like cell phones and laptops. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) currently dominates the market for advanced chips, and rather than imposing tariffs, the administration may explore partnerships to strengthen domestic manufacturing, potentially involving firms like Intel. In fact, Intel just had its best trading week in 25 years, despite lagging the S&P 500 over the past year.

With regulatory and policy dynamics at play, the evolving trade and technology markets will be key to watch.

Final Thoughts

I look forward to getting to know our clients in the years to come. What we do at Secured Retirement is always meant to be a benefit to your lifestyle, comfort, and happiness. The families we serve are everything to us. Please chime in with your own thoughts when these topics resonate. We’re just a phone call away: 952-460-3290. All the best.

Jacob McCue

Investment Strategist/Advisor
Secured Retirement

Our Team Is Growing – Meet Our Staff

January 15, 2025 by Courtney Saaf

There are some fresh faces around Secured Retirement; we’re excited to introduce them to you! It takes a dedicated group of professionals to keep our operation running smoothly – some behind the scenes and others front and center. You’ll likely meet with one of these folks in person, hear their voice on the phone, receive an email from them, or maybe even just spot them in our Christmas card. However you’re in touch, each team member is vital to fulfilling our mission of making a significant impact on the families we serve so they can live comfortably, spend confidently, and pay taxes consciously.

Without further ado, here are some of our latest recruits!

Austin Bruno – Marketing Outreach

Austin works in our marketing department connecting interested parties with the transformative financial planning we provide. From website inquiries to seminar follow-ups to radio show write-ins, Austin fosters relationships with clients before they even step through our doors.

Originally from Fort Myers, FL, Austin developed his client service skills in the insurance industry after graduating from college. We are excited he’s found his way to our team! Welcome, Austin.

Edgar Villegas – Paraplanner

Edgar’s joined the Secured Retirement team as a paraplanner. In his role, he works closely with our advisors to prepare, construct, and follow up on the financial plans they’ve outlined. Having more than 5 years of experience as a wealth advisor in his home state of Oregon, Edgar is immensely qualified for this position. We’re lucky to have him!

In addition to his degree in finance, Edgar furthered his education by obtaining his Series 66 and license to sell life and health insurance. He is motivated to help our clients achieve their financial goals.

Elan Chargo – Project Coordinator

As Secured Retirement’s project coordinator, Elan is a key part of making sure our processes, technology, and company goals are all working together. With a Master’s in project management from Northeastern and experience in operations, Elan is assuredly the right person for the job! He is excited to help our team as individuals and as a group best work together so that we can continue to serve clients with the top-notch customer service we’re known for.

Born and raised in Minnesota, Elan says there’s no place like home and is excited to be furthering his career right here in St. Louis Park. Welcome aboard, Elan!

Welcoming new team members is always a rewarding experience as we continue to strengthen our core capabilities. To learn more about Austin, Edgar, and Elan, as well as the rest of the Secured Retirement team, visit the Our Team page.

Back To Basics In The New Year: 5 Go-To Financial Goals for 2025

January 8, 2025 by Courtney Saaf

Have you made any resolutions this year? Are they still going strong? Whether or not they are, there are a couple things you can do to feel refreshed in the new year. It’s a natural time for a little reset!

Maybe last year didn’t quite pan out as you’d hoped in terms of your personal finances. Perhaps you overspent or didn’t contribute enough to your retirement savings. Sometimes, just getting back to basics can help jumpstart movement in the right direction. In that spirit, we’re reminding you of 5 simple ways to improve your financial standing in the new year. If you follow even one of them, your financial health will improve.

Let’s get started!

1. Get Organized

The first step to financial power is organization. Start by tracking your spending to get a clear picture of where your money goes each month. You might be surprised to see how much you’re spending on both essential and discretionary expenses.

Once you understand your spending habits, create a budget to stay on top of your expenses. A good rule of thumb is to allocate 50% of your income to essential spending, 30% to discretionary spending, and 20% to savings. Use tools like spreadsheets, budgeting apps, or your bank’s mobile app to help you monitor and refine your budget.

Reassess your expenses for potential savings. Look for ways to cut back, such as dining out less frequently or canceling unused subscriptions. Additionally, consider making your 2025 IRA contribution early to maximize potential long-term growth.

2. Build An Emergency Fund

With an understanding of your monthly expenses, start building up those emergency savings to protect your financial plan from unexpected disruptions, such as job changes or medical emergencies. Ideally, this is a fund with enough resources to cover three to six months’ worth of living expenses.

Set a target amount and decide how much you can put away each month to reach your goal. Automating deposits into a dedicated savings account can make this process easier. To take advantage of higher interest rates, consider a money market savings account.

3. Develop a Debt-Reduction Strategy

Carrying high-interest debt can hinder your financial progress. Start by focusing on accounts with the highest interest rates, such as credit cards, and aim to pay more than the minimum balance each month.

Consolidating debt into a single loan with a lower interest rate is another effective strategy. Simplifying your debt can make it easier to manage and reduce stress. If you’re expecting extra income, like a raise or bonus, consider using it to pay down balances faster.

4. Enhance Your Investment Contributions

Investing is a key component of long-term financial health. Increasing your contributions and taking a more sophisticated approach can improve your results. Start with your employer-sponsored retirement plan and ensure you’re taking full advantage of their matching programs.

For more diversified growth, consider allocating additional funds to traditional or Roth IRAs, keeping in mind their respective tax benefits and income limits. If you have an HSA, treat it as a dual-purpose account—a safety net for medical expenses and a tax-advantaged investment vehicle. Many HSAs now offer investment options, allowing your contributions to grow beyond a standard savings account.

Meet with one of our advisors to ensure your asset allocation reflects your current financial goals and time horizon.

5. Save for Something Special

What are you looking forward to in 2025? Setting aside money for a short-term goal, such as a vacation or a new car, can keep you motivated and reinforce positive financial habits. First, set a target amount and then a timeline. Decide how much to set aside from each paycheck. Consider automating these contributions into a separate savings account. And be sure to revisit your budget to ensure this goal aligns with your overall financial priorities.

Kick Off 2025 With Good Habits

Making a plan for your money doesn’t have to be overwhelming, and even these simple financial prep goals set you ahead of the millions of Americans flying by the seat of their pants when it comes to finances. If you can do even one, of these things that you haven’t done before, your financial wellness will grow. By staying organized, planning for the unexpected, and committing to your priorities, let 2025 be your year.

Small, consistent steps can lead to significant progress. Secured Retirement is here to help you make even bigger leaps in financial wellness too. Use your resources and start making smarter financial moves today! Give us a call: 952-460-3260.

We’ve Moved! 6121 Excelsior Blvd. St. Louis Park, MN 55416

What Is Sequence of Returns Risk?

The Challenge of Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

The Problem With Relying on Simple Withdrawal Rules

How to Protect Yourself

Build A Strategy That Prevails