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Weekly Insights 11/15/21 – 11/19/21

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Fun While It Lasted

With winter quickly approaching, at least for those of us in the northern latitudes, we might feel some melancholy about the end of autumn, which is arguably the most pleasant season of the year here in Minnesota (notwithstanding the Vikings win-loss record in any given year.) But winter brings new opportunities – whether it is being outdoors for wintertime activities or being quite comfortable staying indoors and cozying up in front of a warm fireplace. Given the stock market volatility of last week, investors might have many of the same feelings. Disappointment around the strong run of the previous five weeks slowing should be followed with optimism for what lies ahead.

The S&P 500 ended the week slightly lower, experiencing its first weekly loss since the last week of September. The primary driver of last week’s market activity was inflation, which continues to be on the forefront of consumers’ and investors’ minds. The talk of higher prices has been accelerating for most of this year, akin to a low rumble quickly building in intensity. Now that rumble has grown considerably louder since consumers see higher prices in many, if not most, goods purchased, especially as the holiday season approaches.

The stock market unceremoniously snapped an eight-day winning streak after a surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported last Tuesday. The PPI, which measures the change in prices charged by producers for their goods and services, rose 8.6% from a year ago and remains at the highest levels recorded since this measure began in its current form 11 years ago. The markets were spooked even more on Wednesday by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of the change in prices paid by consumers, which showed a yearly increase of 6.2%. This was above analysts’ expectations and the largest year-over-year increase since December 1990 when the first Bush was in the White House. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was the highest it has been since 1982!

These high inflation readings have implications for the stock market, bond market and overall economy. Raw materials producers, such as energy and mining companies, that benefit from higher commodity prices traded higher while companies having to deal with higher input costs did not fare as well. Growth stocks, especially technology companies, also did not fare well since their share prices are based upon expectations for future earnings. With higher interest rates, the present value of those earnings are not worth as much, providing pressure on current stock prices.

Painted In a Corner

Not only do these higher levels of inflation potentially cause stress for consumers and headaches for certain investors, but this also places the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. The Fed has previously maintained that inflation is “transitory,” or short-term, as a result of the pandemic but in recent weeks has acknowledged it is “persistent.” The inflation readings last week led to speculation the Fed will taper the monthly bond buying program faster than announced two weeks ago, resulting in it completely ending earlier than currently expected. This might also prompt the Fed to take action with interest rates sooner than previously thought with the expectations now for multiple rate hikes next year. Frequently inflation is fueled by “easy money” (low interest rates lead to low borrowing costs for businesses and consumers) so increases in short term interest rates, which increase borrowing costs, reduce the supply of money and have the effect of controlling inflation. However, in addition to easy money, inflation is now being driven by supply chain constraints and higher input costs, namely commodity prices and labor costs, which are beyond the control of any action the Fed could take.

Looking Ahead

Since inflation, which has consistently been viewed at the top of the list of investors’ worries over the past several months, remains elevated there is some concern of a return to 1970s style “stagflation,” marked by prolonged inflation, stagnant economic growth and high unemployment rates. Whispers of stagflation have been gaining in intensity and the past week’s data releases have only added to this fear. With unemployment being relatively low and continuing to decrease we do not see this as being likely, but we are watching for a potential slowdown in economic activity. We are experiencing slowing growth, which is to be expected since it was at such lofty levels coming out of the pandemic, but the fact remains economic expansion continues. Next week’s key economic data releases include retail sales as well as capacity utilization and industrial production. We view current supply chain constraints as the largest threat to the economy so the last two data points just mentioned will provide clues regarding the state of production in the manufacturing sector. If production numbers are lower than expected or slow considerably there is a high probability overall economic growth will follow and slow also. Consumer spending comprises almost 70% of GDP so a slowdown in retail sales would also point towards slowing growth. At this point the economy seems to be (mostly) firing on all cylinders but this could change over the next several months, which would subsequently alter our investment outlook and portfolio positioning.

As we have mentioned in the past, the stretch from November until January is historically one of the strongest times of the year for the stock market. Despite the recent run-up, we do not foresee any reason for it to be different this year. Gains may be more muted than in past years, but we remain optimistic for a continuation of the upward trend. Holiday décor can be seen in stores and Thanksgiving will be upon us next week, reminders that the end of the year is approaching. If you have not yet had a year-end review of your portfolio and financial plan, be sure to give us a call to schedule one. Here in the Twin Cities we saw our first brush of snow last week, reminding us that winter truly is on its way, so best to embrace it, just as it is best to embrace whatever is happening in the markets and position yourself accordingly.

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 11/8/21 – 11/12/21

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Never Forget

As we observe Veteran’s Day this week let us give gratitude to those who have served in the Armed Forces. We enjoy the freedoms we have today because of their bravery and sacrifice. Our country was founded on certain principles including liberty and freedom, for which our forefathers fought during the Revolutionary War and many of our family members, friends, and neighbors have more recently protected. By securing our freedom, men and women in uniform have also protected the capitalistic society from which we benefit. This enables us to work hard to earn a living, save money, and have investments for savings to grow.

Speaking of investing, the stock markets are again sitting at all-time highs with last week being the fifth consecutive week of gains, which were driven by positive economic news and continued strong corporate earnings. The earnings season is winding down with 85% of the S&P 500 companies now having reported. Not surprisingly the earnings reports were strong with many companies beating estimates and boosting forward guidance. Strong corporate profits and a growing economy should provide continued tailwinds for the markets. Historically speaking, the stretch from November through January is one of the best times of the year for the stock market. It remains to be seen if history repeats itself this year, but having a solid economy and continued growth in corporate profits leads us to believe there is no reason this year would be any different.

Beginning in March of last year, in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) has purchased $120 billion of bonds per month in an effort to keep interest rates low as well as signal the intention of using monetary policy to help support the economy. Last week on Wednesday, the Fed announced they are going to being “tapering,” or reducing, this monthly bond buying program, commonly referred to as quantitative easing, or “QE.” The tapering will consist of reducing those purchases by $15 billion per month which is expected to fully wind down the program by the middle of next year, but the Fed maintains flexibility to adjust in either direction if needed. Since this announcement does indicate the Fed feels the economy is close to fully recovering and able to stand on its own, it helped push the stock market higher even though this announcement was expected since the Fed generally signals their intentions in advance. The QE program helped keep interest rates low so we expect to see some rise in interest rates over the coming months. It is also now expected the Fed will begin to raise the base Fed Funds rate shortly after QE is fully wrapped up in the middle of next year.

Jobs

The employment reports of the previous two months were weaker than expected, but still positive, which led some to believe the Fed could hold off on beginning the taper to ensure the economy was on stable footing. However, the Fed obviously felt strongly enough that the economy was at least stable, and most likely expanding, that they went ahead with the taper announcement. Their decision seems well justified since the October employment report on Friday was better than expectations and the previous two months were revised upwards, which should not be a surprise given we remain near record highs for job openings. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, but even with these large jobs gains the employment-to-population ratio remains below where it was pre-pandemic and indicates we are still not at full employment. This shows there is still room to run in the labor market recovery and therefore further wage pressures may be limited.

Also on the economic front, durable orders, factory orders and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing survey all came in better than expected last week, providing further evidence the economic recovery remains intact and is not showing signs of slowing down. Data for labor costs and hourly earnings were higher than expected, which is not completely surprising given the current state of the labor market. Since labor costs, along with supply chain disruptions, seem to be driving inflation this leads us to believe inflation will continue in the foreseeable future.

Looking Ahead

Given the numerous surveys suggesting inflation continues to be the largest risk on investors’ minds, this coming week will be significant with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) being reported. The stock market has enjoyed a healthy run since the beginning of October and with earnings season winding down it might be due for a bit of a slowdown; hopefully that is not the case and it continues to march upwards.

We also continue to watch the progress of the infrastructure and social spending bills, especially any revenue provisions, i.e. taxes, which might be included and how they would impact individuals. Political dynamics have changed over the past week with election results, especially two key gubernatorial races. This does not impact Congress directly but it does show that the Democratic party in Washington, which holds a razor-thin majority, does not hold the leverage once thought for passing these bills, especially going into mid-term elections next year.

We would like to especially like to recognize our firm’s founder, Joe Lucey, who is a veteran of the United States Marine Corps and the many clients who are veterans or have family members serving in the military. We do have a few spots remaining for our Veteran’s Appreciation Luncheon on Wednesday, November 10th with special guest speaker John Kriesel. Call our office for more details if you or a veteran you know would like to attend. Thank you to all vets for your service; we will never forget.

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 11/1/21 – 11/5/21

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The Great Pumpkin

For those of you who spent Halloween waiting in the pumpkin patch hoping to catch a glimpse of the Great Pumpkin, hopefully you were not disappointed. Investing in the stock market is similar to believing in the Great Pumpkin – maintain an optimistic attitude, remain patient, and be willing to commit time in order to experience the joy of what you hope to achieve.

After a frightening September for the stock market, October did not seem very scary. Strong earnings reports pushed the market higher with the S&P 500 ending the month with a gain of nearly 7%. About half of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported quarterly earnings with roughly 12% of those providing positive earnings surprises. This pace is lower than the previous two quarters but higher than the long-term average of 8.4%, indicating that despite the supposed undertows in the market, companies remain very profitable and continue to experience growth.

Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) had very strong earnings while Apple and Amazon were surprisingly disappointing. There is no doubt Apple and Amazon are extremely profitable and continue to grow but not at the pace analysts expected. The four companies listed above make up about 20% of the S&P 500 so the movement in their stock prices has the potential to have outsized impacts on the index, which is commonly viewed as a barometer of the health of the overall market. While these companies may grab headlines and move the major indices, there are many other stocks making moves with much less visibility. This leads us to believe that individual stock selection and sector weightings will be increasingly important in the foreseeable future.

Sugar High

Similar to children (and adults) coming off a post-Halloween sugar high from eating too much candy, the economy is slowly coming off a high from having large amounts of stimulus pumped into it. This does not mean there is going to be a crash or recession, but rather the pace of growth will be lower than the previous few quarters. GDP numbers released last week were slightly below expectations, but still showed continued growth. The term “stagflation,” which is high or moderate inflation accompanied by slow or no economic growth, is increasingly being used due to concerns of diminishing growth. However, economic growth remains modest for now, but this is an area in which we remain vigilant. In our view, the biggest risks to continued economic expansion are the current supply chain constraints and higher input costs which could possibly lead to a slowdown in spending.

We would be remiss if we did not mention inflation since that is what we see as being the largest risk to investors in the intermediate to long term. The Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) preferred inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), was reported last week and remains elevated at the highest levels since 1991 as well as above the Fed’s comfort zone. There seems to now be little doubt inflation remains persistent and will take center stage during the Fed’s discussions when they meet this week.

Looking Ahead

Earnings reports continue in earnest over the next few weeks, but with many large names already reporting it seems unlikely any individual announcements will move the markets substantially. A continuation of the momentum in positive earnings surprises should provide further tailwinds for the stock markets. It is widely anticipated at the conclusion of their meeting this week the Fed will announce the beginning of a tapering, or reduction, in their monthly bond buying program, often referred to as Quantitative Easing or “QE.” Since the Fed tends to telegraph their intentions in advance their action is generally priced into the market before it happens. Should they deviate greatly from expectations there is the potential to cause some market movement, either up or down, on a short-term basis.

As we head into the last two months of the year, we expect stock market returns to be more muted especially after such a strong showing in October. Close attention is being paid to supply chain issues and how retail inventories, both traditional and online, are affected. Consumer sentiment remains high and indications are most people are willing to spend money this holiday season but it remains to be seen if there will be enough inventory to support a high level of spending. We will also be watching the progression of the infrastructure and social programs bills in Congress, especially how revenue will be generated to pay for each and what impact that might have on individuals, corporations and the broader economy.

Even though we have moved past Halloween and transition into a new month, do not lose faith in the Great Pumpkin, a robust economy or the stock markets. If you would like to have a discussion regarding any potential tax savings moves or portfolio adjustments prior to the end of the year, which is rapidly approaching, please do not hesitate to contact us to schedule a meeting.

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Why Diversifying Your Income is Critical in Retirement!

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Here are some recent headlines from The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch and Investment News that should get your attention …

  • “Medicare trust fund will be exhausted in 2026.”
  • “Social Security to Tap into Trust Fund for the First Time in 36 Years.” 
  • “Stock Market Returns Over the Next Decade Will be Well Below Historical Norms.”
  • And “The Pension Hole for U.S. Cities and States is the Size of Germany’s Economy.”

Social security, Medicare, pensions, and stock market returns are all critical components of your retirement. But their financial stability is now in question. If you’re counting on any of these things to help support you, you have good reason to be concerned.

In a best-case scenario, this could have a serious impact on your lifestyle in retirement. In a worst-case scenario, it could force you back to work.

This underscores one very critical thing. You can’t rely on just one source of income in retirement. You must have a diversified number of income sources.

We will be covering why diversifying your income sources in retirement could help you avoid a financial disaster, as well as how to navigate the critical challenges ahead with Medicare and social security, your options to generate income today – no matter what’s happens next on Wall Street, and more.

Successful retirements are not built on assets, or the amount of money you’ve saved, they’re built on your ability to generate income in retirement. Stock markets go up and down, but your income is the backbone of your retirement game plan. You need a plan to make your money break a sweat.

Generating income is tougher today than ever before. Traditional “go-to” options for generating income are dead. Pensions are all but history. Although interest rates are on the rise, they are still historically low, meaning rates on CD’s and savings accounts are a joke. $500,000 in a one-year CD today will only fetch roughly $700 a month. And that’s before taxes! And it doesn’t look like these rates are going to significantly change anytime soon. Bond yields aren’t any better, and people still fear investing in a stock market that remains at near highs. Historically speaking, we are well overdue for a bear market.

According to a recent Kiplinger – From 1926-2017, bull markets lasted on average nine years. If that is the case, this bull market should be ending right about now, as it just turned 9 on March 9, 2018. Also, the typical bear market lasts 1.4 years, with an average cumulative loss of 41%. This mean trouble is on the horizon (just look at the recent volatility).

Show me someone who lives in constant fear of running out of money, and I’ll show you someone who doesn’t have a plan to generate income. It’s that simple. However, you can’t just have an income plan, you need a diversified income plan. It’s risky to rely on one source of income in retirement. The following are some potential sources of income, but this is where you should use your expertise to go over these topics in detail.

  • Dividend stocks – Most mature companies pay a recurring dividend to shareholders. In most cases, these dividends are paid quarterly to shareholders who owned the stock on the date of record. Typical yields for most dividend focused ETFs are 2-3%.
  • Investment grade corporate bond fund – has bond holdings from highly-rated companies in a proportion that is meant to mimic the indices they track.
  • Municipal bonds – debt obligations issued by states or other municipalities to fund projects. Some, but not all municipal bonds are exempt from federal tax for all investors and exempt from state tax if the investor lives in the state of the municipality issuing the bond.
  • REIT – Real estate investment trusts own a portfolio of real estate, the purchase of which is financed by debt and the issuance of securities to investors. A REIT can be public or private and open-end or closed-end.
  • Reverse mortgages – the bank pays you, you keep your home, and it remains part of your estate. Essentially, you are putting your home equity to work for you.
  • Commercial/residential/multi-unit real estate – Buying a rental property is a rather straightforward proposition, especially if you know the local market well that you’re investing in.
  • Annuities – insurance products that pay out over your lifetime, no matter how long you live. And these products have come a long way over the last few decades.

However, the specific strategies that will be used for you will be totally different than anyone else, because even a minor difference in your age, assets, risk tolerance, or life expectancy could trigger a major shift in strategy.

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Danielle Christensen

Paraplanner

Danielle is dedicated to serving clients to achieve their retirement goals. As a Paraplanner, Danielle helps the advisors with the administrative side of preparing and documenting meetings. She is a graduate of the College of St. Benedict, with a degree in Business Administration and began working with Secured Retirement in May of 2023.

Danielle is a lifelong Minnesotan and currently resides in Farmington with her boyfriend and their senior rescue pittie/American Bulldog mix, Tukka.  In her free time, Danielle enjoys attending concerts and traveling. She is also an avid fan of the Minnesota Wild and loves to be at as many games as possible during the season!