Secured Retirement

To Be or Not to Be

Shakespeare’s Hamlet character uttered these words wondering if he should continue to be, meaning to exist or remain alive, or not to exist.  Hamlet’s debate was internal with himself, but a similar debate is now taking place on a much larger scale regarding a recession – are we in the midst of one or are we not?  The preliminary GDP report for the second quarter showed negative growth, following negative growth during the first quarter of the year.  Conventional wisdom is that two quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession.  However, it can be argued while the economy appears to be retracting, at least on a real, or inflation adjusted basis, employment and industrial production remain strong while consumer spending has not collapsed.  Are we in a recession or are we not? And if we are, how much does it matter to investors, especially those in the stock market?

The headline GDP number is reported on a real, inflation adjusted basis, but digging deeper into the GDP report shows the overall value of all goods and services produced increased by 7.8% compared to a year ago. Factoring inflation of nearly 9% results in a contraction of 0.9%, the headline number reported.  Looking at these numbers, if we indeed are in a recession, it is shallow and fairly mild thus far.  However, if it were to continue for a prolonged period then it could impact employment which in turn would lead to issues with consumer spending and housing, causing the recession to deepen further. While there is argument over whether or not we currently are in a recession, most economists seem to be in agreement the U.S. economy is losing momentum and the probability we will experience a recession is increasing.   

There was a plethora of events during the past week, including earnings reports from major tech companies which currently make up a very large portion of the S&P 500 and therefore directly impact how the overall market performs.  Alphabet (f.k.a. Google) and Microsoft earnings were worse than analyst estimates, but both stocks rallied since the reports were not as bad as feared but more importantly both gave positive outlooks.  Apple and Amazon both had positive earnings reports beating lowered expectations and also provided positive outlooks.  Earnings reports from these giants produced strong momentum for the stock market with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 4% on the week.  The recent focus on the Fed and inflation is because higher interest rates lead to higher borrowing rates and inflation tends to damper spending, both of which would negatively affect corporate earnings. The market has been adjusting accordingly via the pullback experienced this year but if future expectations improve the market could reverse course. This is precisely what we’ve seen over the past six weeks as the S&P 500 has bounced roughly 11% from its lows in mid-June. 

Much Ado About Nothing

Most of the time a three-quarter point rate hike by the Federal Reserve would be very big news but given the other events of the week it may be easy to overlook.  Future expectations for interest rate increases have shifted dramatically in the past month as economic data is showing a slowdown in activity.  In his remarks after the Fed meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stated there are signs of a slowing economy and future rate hikes will be data dependent.  This was cheered by the markets as it is an indication that future interest rate increases are likely to be lower than previously expected; the most aggressive of the Fed’s actions to raise interest rates may now be behind us. Fear of the Fed raising rates too high and keeping monetary policy restrictive for too long was a concern causing headwinds for equity markets.  While very much still a possibility, some of this fear seems to be alleviated with Powell’s comments.  The markets, especially the bond markets which tend to be a good predictor of future activity, are indicating the Fed will continue to raise rates through the end of this year but will have to pivot and lower rates in 2023.  It will remain to be seen if market expectations are correct or if the Fed will need to remain on a path of raising interest rates.  

Future Fed action is ultimately dependent upon inflationary pressures, some of which may be beginning to abate.  Oil prices have pulled back slightly and moderated (but still remain stubbornly high.) Many commodities experienced price decreases of 20-30% during the month of June. Comments during recent corporate earnings calls also indicate pricing pressures seem to be abating.  The government’s inflation reports reflect changes in price levels over a certain period of time, either month-to-month or year-to-year.  Compared to a year ago, prices are markedly higher but given what seems to be a stabilization in prices recently, future inflation readings, especially once we get into 2023, could show lower changes in price levels.  This could be a catalyst for the Fed to reverse course, especially if at that time we are in a recession. Ironically, the stock market is viewing the prospects of a recession positively since recessions tend to be deflationary as demand decreases, often causing prices to drop or at least stop increasing.  Inflation and higher interest rates have created the biggest weight on the markets this year, so if the prospects for continued inflation are waning it could prove to be a boon for investors. 

Looking Ahead

After all of the excitement in the markets this past week, a quieter week may come as a welcome reprieve.  Earnings reports continue in earnest and it is earnings that drive the markets over the long-term, which is why so much attention is being given at this critical juncture. The major economic release of the week is the employment report on Friday, expected to show the labor market remains robust with low unemployment.  A high level of employment produces higher wages and inflation, further complicating the work of the Fed.  In order to engineer a soft landing, the Fed needs to reduce wage pressure while not causing substantial harm to the employment situation.

The recent mini-rally is leading to improvement in investor and consumer sentiment, both of which had reached historically low levels.  If sentiment continues to improve, which we expect it will on the heels of last week’s activity, it should help provide further thrust for the markets. Should investors care if we are in a recession or not?  Markets tend to be a leading economic indicator; they will tell you what the economy will do.  The economy will not tell you what the markets are going to do.   If you would like to discuss your portfolio to ensure it is positioned for whatever occurs in the markets and economy, please do not hesitate to contact us. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Bottoms Up

The term “bottoms up” is most often associated with a toast or telling people to finish their drinks, implying the bottom of the drink glass is being raised as the drink is consumed.  In business, “bottom up” refers to taking action based upon feedback from lower levels of a hierarchy, generally front-line employees.  And in investing, “bottom-up” refers to making investment decisions based upon individual security selection or sector analysis, as compared to top-down analysis which takes a larger view and begins with analysis of the macroeconomic environment.  (Author’s note: In our updates we tend to discuss much more of the macroeconomic environment and market conditions, compared to looking at individual stocks and sectors, so this would be considered top-down analysis.)  But now might be a good time to contemplate whether this is a “bottom up” situation, one different than any described above – has the stock market bottomed and are we on our way back up?   

We will not definitively know the answer to that question for several months, but there are several indications the markets may have bottomed about a month ago.  Thus far the markets have had a strong showing in July with the S&P 500 being higher by about 5%, led by the stocks most beat up this year – technology.  Interest rates saw a spike in mid-June and have since retreated, providing a reprieve to growth stocks whose values are vulnerable to interest rates since stock prices reflect estimates of the present value of future earnings.  We have also experienced a pullback in commodity prices, including energy, giving hope that inflation may be moderating.  Despite this bounce, the S&P 500 remains about 15% off its all-time highs reached earlier this year.

Fears of an impending recession have been exacerbated by the inversion of the bond yield curve with 2-year U.S. Treasuries now yielding more than 10-year U.S. Treasuries.  Ironically, even though the bond market is signaling a slowdown the stock market is viewing this as a positive since a recession could help quell inflation and eventually lead to lower interest rates.  A slowdown in economic activity during a recession is likely to lead to lower demand, alleviating upward pressure on prices. Recessions can even be deflationary, depending upon the severity and length. 

Grab Your Drinks

Much attention is paid to monthly economic releases, but over time corporate earnings drive stock market returns more than any other factor.  Earnings season is gearing up in earnest with some of the largest tech companies reporting this week. The earnings already reported show that demand remains solid but inflation is providing headwinds.  Tight labor markets continue to cause issues, contributing to higher costs and hindering growth prospects.  Many companies expect inflation to moderate during the second half of the year.  Earnings expectations have already been lowered and the earnings reported so far have not been spectacular with only a handful of names beating expectations.  The fact that earnings have not been worse than the lowered expectations does provide optimism and is providing a boost to the stock market.  And there is still much more to come, so grab a drink and watch what happens with earnings reports over the next few weeks; they will drive the markets and provide a clearer picture on whether we are indeed moving off the bottom and on the path to recovery. 

We also cannot forget other highly anticipated events of the week, especially the Federal Reserve meeting.  It is widely expected they will raise interest rates by three-quarters of one percent or 75 basis points (a basis point is equal to 0.01%).  After the hotter than expected CPI report a couple of weeks ago there was speculation they would raise rates by a full point but that has now been mostly suppressed after recent comments from Fed officials.  At this time, it seems likely the Fed will raise rates by at least a half point, or 50 basis points, at their September meetings.  Inflation may be abating and with the potential for a recession on the horizon there is some thought the Fed will have to reverse course and begin to lower rates sometime in 2023.

Looking Ahead

It is going to be a very busy week with earnings and the Fed, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports.  The PCE Deflator is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation and, similar to CPI, is expected to remain elevated and well above the Fed’s comfort level of 2-3% annual inflation.  With all the events of the week, it is the GDP report which will likely garner the most attention.  The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a.k.a. economic contraction.  GDP was negative in the first quarter of this year so if this report is also negative, we could “technically” already be in a recession.  Where it gets interesting is that the headline GDP is reported on a real basis, meaning that growth is measured and then adjusted for inflation.  So even though there could be positive economic growth, factoring in inflation will make it appear to be negative.  On a nominal basis, GDP growth is very likely to remain positive so if the report comes in showing contraction, it may be disputed as to whether or not we really are in a recession. 

We remain hopeful the recent stock market strength is the beginning of the bounce from the bottom and this is not merely a short-term bear market rally.  This year has been a real wake-up call for some people, especially for those who became complacent over several years of bull markets.  We remain very optimistic for long-term market prospects but continue to acknowledge there will be volatility over shorter time periods.  Be sure your portfolio is aligned with your level of risk. Both your risk tolerance, what you can handle emotionally, as well as your risk capacity, what amount of money you are able to lose and maintain your lifestyle.  Please give us a call if you would like to discuss your situation. If you are interested in hearing more of our thoughts on the markets, including our outlook for the second half of the year be sure to join us for our monthly Lunch & Learn on July 25^th, either in-person or via livestream online.   

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Runaway Train

A runaway train is one which operates at unsafe speeds due to loss of operator control.  The thought of such an event is likely to conjure images of panic for passengers and anyone in its path.  Higher than expected inflation reports last week added to fears inflation is becoming runaway.  Has the Federal Reserve lost control? Is inflation on a trajectory to become runaway?  We won’t have definitive answers to these questions for a few months, but we can offer our thoughts and assessment. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 9.1% over the past twelve months; the most since 1981.  This reading was even hotter than the previous few months and above expectations, indicating that inflation is continuing to accelerate.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher by a whopping 11.3% compared to a year ago; much higher than the 10.7% consensus estimate.  All inflation numbers seem to be suggesting that inflation is continuing to accelerate.  Both CPI and PPI are reported with “headline” numbers as well as “core” where food and energy, which tend to experience greater price volatility, are removed.  But it is food and energy, along with housing, that are causing the most pain for many Americans and leading to such soaring levels of inflation.  In fact, the Federal Reserve last week even acknowledged the Core CPI and PPI should now be largely ignored since they are not reflective of what most Americans, and people all over the globe, are experiencing.  Gas and food prices are now taking up the largest percentages of household budgets in a generation, if not longer. 

It is no surprise the Fed is seemingly well behind the curve when the Federal Funds target rate is 1.75% and inflation is over 9%.  Action taken thus far seems to be having a very muted impact on inflation.  However, we do need to acknowledge if often takes many months for tighter monetary policy to have a discernible impact on the economy. It tends to take about 6 months to experience the full effects of an interest rate increase and the Fed only began to raise rates in March.  But we now know the threats of inflation were largely ignored for too long and the Fed had a late start and are now trying to catch-up.

Stopping the Train

Stopping a runaway train can be very difficult, especially to do so in a manner where nobody is hurt. The same is true of inflation.  At this point it seems the outcomes will be either inflation truly becomes runaway and causes structural damage to the economy from a long-term reduction in confidence or is contained by the Fed via higher interest rates, which also has the potential to cause damage since it would likely lead to a recession.  There is a chance inflation will “fizzle” out on its own via increased supply, which would imply the supply chain issues we’ve experienced over the past couple of years are resolved, and/or reduced demand from lower spending.  The Fed has very little, if any, control over supply but higher prices and higher costs of borrowing could reduce demand. 

On the demand side, an increase in money supply is perhaps the largest driver of inflation.  The Fed has begun a quantitative tightening (QT) program by selling bonds they held on their balance sheet, sucking money out of the economy. But they have much work to do to get enough money out of the system to have make a noticeable difference in reducing demand to help lower inflation. 

Commodities prices have fallen rather dramatically over the past month, which was not reflected in the most recent reports.  Housing costs, which are the largest component of CPI showed continued increases in the latest report, but there are now reports of listing prices of homes for sale are being dropped which is likely to lead to a moderation, if not some pullback, in housing prices and reduction in housing costs.  A lot can happen over the next month but early indications are we could see a bit of a softening in the inflation reports next month.  We want to stress this is merely a prediction on what the reports will reflect based recent price changes.  It does not imply we think inflation is moderating; in fact we think it will remain elevated through at least the end of the year. 

Looking Ahead

Odds of a 100 basis point, or 1%, interest rate hike by the Fed at their meeting next week have increased greatly.  Previously it seemed to be a foregone conclusion they would raise by 75 basis points, or three-quarters of 1%, with the possibility of only a half-point hike.  That changed after last week’s inflation reports and it looks like it will be either a 0.75% or 1.00% hike as the Fed tries to be more aggressive in their fight with inflation before it becomes out of control.  But if the Fed does hike more aggressively, it also increases the chances of pushing us into a recession. 

Earnings season kicked off last week with many of the major banks reporting.  Earnings drive stock prices and historically we see the stock market move higher 75% of the time during an earnings season.  However, expectations are now being lowered with less consumer activity, higher expenses, and headwinds from higher interest rates.  The earnings already reported were largely disappointing, with local favorite UnitedHealth Group beating estimates and being a notable exception.  Thus far we are not being given much reason for optimism.  However, it is still very early in this earnings cycle and positive surprises could help bolster the stock market, leading to some upside momentum.  Between earnings, the Fed, and the quarterly GDP report, there will be much to pay attention to for the remainder of July. 

Be sure your portfolio is protected and you do not find yourself in an uncontrollable situation that threatens your lifestyle.  A falling stock market and higher costs are leading to some trying times.  We are here to help you feel secure in your retirement, so please give us a call if you would like help ensuring you have complete control over your long-term financial plan. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Fireworks End with a Bang

Last week people across our great nation watched fireworks shows to commemorate our country’s independence.  Most displays end with a grand finale consisting of many fireworks going off at once, resulting in a big BANG!  We experienced plenty of fireworks in the markets during the first half of the year, but is the show over or is the big bang yet to come?

There were many underlying themes during the first half of 2022 including stretched stock valuations, especially in tech stocks; war in Ukraine; high energy prices; the highest levels of inflation seen in 40 years; interest rates moving higher; and a slowing economy with the possibility of a lingering recession.  Most of these are somewhat inter-related but the combination of all led to the worst first half of the year for the S&P 500 Index since 1970.  The Bloomberg Barclay’s Bond Aggregate suffered its worst losses on record.  Almost all major asset classes had negative returns, with most being lower by double digits. The only bright spot was commodities, which were broadly higher by about 30% year-to-date despite giving up nearly 10% in the month of June.  To say 2022 has been difficult for the markets and investors might be a bit of an understatement.        

With the stock market dipping into (and out of) bear market territory and the threat of a recession looming, it may seem the carnage may not be over. Many market “experts” have said the markets we will not reach a bottom until we reach a point of widespread capitulation, where investors sell, basically giving up and losing hope of recouping the lost gains.  When this happens, it can be very dramatic with a large, very rapid downward swing in the markets; similar to a big bang at the end of a fireworks show.  Do we need to experience capitulation before the markets move higher?  We would argue the answer is no.  Instead of a big bang, the markets might quietly start to ascend.  For those that did sell when the market was lower and are waiting for a major drop, they could miss out on the rebound. 

Second Half

What will the second half of the year bring?  Stock markets making a move higher in the first week of July give reason for optimism.  There are signs the market may be oversold. Economic growth does appear to be slowing but there are indications that things are not as bad as they may seem or are being reported.  Consumer spending, while slowing, seems to remain mostly intact.  Anecdotally, TSA reported airline traffic is exceeding pre-pandemic levels showing there is still an appetite for travel despite higher ticket prices from increased demand and higher fuel prices.  The June employment report, which was released Friday, exceeded expectations reflecting a still robust labor market and continuing levels of low employment.  A recent CNBC survey of strategists from 16 major Wall Street investment banks showed that all expected the stock market to be higher by the end of the year, compared to where it is now.  History does not always repeat itself but it is worth noting that the last time the market was down this much, in 1970, the S&P 500 returned 26.5% in the second half of the year. 

Inflation continues to be a major theme in the markets, coupled with possible Federal Reserve action.  Current expectations are for the Fed to raise short-term interest rates by another 75 basis points, or 0.75%, during their next meeting at the end of this month.  Looking out further, rate hikes of 50 basis points (0.50%) at both the September and December meetings are now anticipated bringing the Federal Funds rate to 3.50% by the end of the year.  We do not have the same optimism for bonds as we do for stocks since higher interest rates cause bond prices to drop.  Somewhat surprisingly, there is a growing probability being priced into the market that the Fed will lower interest rates sometime in 2023 to combat slower growth.  If that does occur, the Fed may be able to declare victory in their inflation fight even if it comes at the expense of pushing the economy into a recession.  Much can happen in coming months, so we are reluctant to put a great deal of confidence into such a scenario taking place. 

Looking Ahead

As we have mentioned numerous times, whether or not we enter a recession might be a moot point for the stock market since a recession may already be priced in.  We will find out later this month if second quarter GDP was negative, which would put us into a “technical” recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  If that is the case, GDP growth is only slight negative so while it meets the definition of a recession it would be very shallow in comparison to past recessions.

This coming week will bring key inflation reports, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which are expected to remain elevated.  We are going to go out on a limb here and predict that the CPI comes in a little lower than expectations since energy prices and housing costs pulled back a bit during June. It will not be a dramatic change from what we have seen the past few months but might be enough to give some hope that inflation has peaked.  Even if this is the case, we expect inflation to remain elevated for at least the next several months.  Unless the CPI report largely surprises to the upside, it is doubtful it will impact expected Federal Reserve action at the end of the month. 

One thing is for certain, even if we are bouncing off the lows and on an upward trajectory there will again be times in the future where we have substantial market pullbacks and we experience bear markets.  Be prepared for these by ensuring you have a solid, unflappable income plan in place to maintain your lifestyle and your investments are properly allocated for your level of risk tolerance.  Make sure your retirement plan can outlast any fireworks in the markets. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Independence Day, also called Fourth of July, is the annual celebration of nationhood. The day commemorates the passage of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776. As we are blessed to celebrate Independence Day at Secured Retirement, we take a moment to pause on what the holiday and this country means to our families and clients.  

Congress has and will continue to make decisions that impact most families in their economical livelihood near and at retirement. Our team keeps a close watch on Congressional decisions to plan morally, legally, and ethically the role taxes will play in retirement. The Fourth of July is also a mid-year time to review and adjust retirement strategies based on current and foreseeable legislation changes and learnings shared this spring by former U.S. Comptroller David Walker’s presentation.  

With uncertainties to the impact of rising inflation and market volatility we will be hosting additional webinars with guest speakers from Secured Retirement and our partner network. These focused topics are geared toward better understanding strategies to implement what you can control. We hope you will join us and refer Secured Retirement to those that may be seeking retirement planning.  

May we also suggest other great Fourth of July moments filled with recipes from our Secured Retirement cookbook including Never Fail Pie Crust & Apple Pie and Raspberry Fudge Ribbon Pie on page 55 among the favorite recipes by our clients.  We wish you an amazing summer, hopefully enjoying the freedoms our great country brings.  

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Head I Win, Tails You Lose

I remember arguing with my folks about having to do chores when I was a child. In one instance my father cut a deal with me where he would flip a coin with the outcome determining whether or not I had to do the chores I was arguing about.  He told me if it came up heads he won but if it was tails I would lose.  My naivety at a relatively young age coupled with my insistence on a quick win deterred me from stopping to think about what was being proposed. Obviously this was a guaranteed winning situation for my father and a losing situation for me. It is very possible we are facing a similar situation with the economy today – one where there seem to be two possible outcomes, neither of which are desirable. 

Last week the stock markets performed strongly with the S&P 500 moving higher by more than 6%.  This was a welcomed respite in what had been a rather brutal month in the market, especially after the sharp losses of the prior week. Absent any major catalysts for this move, it may be that after three weeks of negative markets there might have been some selling “exhaustion,” and investors decided it was a good time to buy.  The S&P 500 is now out of bear market territory but still sharply lower year-to-date.  Time will tell if this ends up being a bear market rally and we see other moves lower or if we did experience the bottom and this is the beginning of a sustained rebound. 

There are indications corporate executives are viewing the recent negative sentiment in the stock market with caution and may alter expansion and hiring plans, helping to reduce inflation.  If this results in lower inflation, there becomes the possibility the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates as much as currently expected and perhaps even start to lower rates during the later part of 2023.  This would be a major turn of events compared to two weeks ago when it was feared the Fed would need to raise rates aggressively over the next couple of years. This fear sent markets reeling two weeks ago after the Fed raised rates 75 basis points for the first time in 28 years.  Lending credence to this theory was the notable drop in bond yields, including the 10-year U.S. Treasury pulling back from its multi-year high near 3.5% all the way down to near 3.0%. This may not sound like much, but it is a rather dramatic move for fixed income markets, which tend to be a stronger indicator of the future than the stock market.  

But if the Fed does not need to raise interest rates as much as currently anticipated, doesn’t that mean we can avoid a recession and everything will be good?  Not exactly – corporations cutting back on hiring or expansion could push the economy into a recession on its own. The silver lining being the Fed does not need to raise rates as much as thought during this cycle. However, if this does not occur and corporations continue to spend money and expand, which we hope they do, then the Fed will most likely find themselves in a situation where they will be forced to continue to raise interest rates aggressively, which also has a high probability of causing a recession.  Hence, why this appears to be a “heads I win, tails you lose” situation in which there is not a desirable outcome.

Recession Watch

The fact we will face a recession seems to be the consensus amongst many economists and market analysts with the question really being “when,” this year or next (or possibly 2024), and not “if.”  The stock market reaching bear market territory, commodity prices falling, and the bond yield curve inverting all seem to be signs that a recession is imminent.  But this reminds us of a quip from economist Paul Samuelson back in the 1960s, where he stated, “The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions;” meaning the stock market often gives false signals. 

To consider an alternate outcome and play a game of “what-if” – what if the market has already priced in the worst scenarios?  What if energy prices continue to drop?  What if we somehow avoid a recession?  What if inflation does quickly abate?  What if the Fed does not need to raise interest rates substantially from here?  What if corporate earnings continue to grow?  A few weeks ago these scenarios individually may not have seemed plausible but now there is a growing inkling of hope they all could be. Energy prices dropped last week due to expectations for weaker demand going forward. This is turn will have a major impact on reported, and actual, inflation.  We are not saying this is what will occur, but merely stating possible scenarios. If this were to occur we would expect a very positive reaction in the stock market, which could happen quickly and overly cautious investors might find themselves missing out. 

Looking Ahead

We are faced with the prospects of an economic slowdown or recession, caused either by market forces or aggressive action from the Federal Reserve.  The Fed no doubt is still trying to engineer a “soft landing” and avoid a recession but this is likely to be outside their control.  Fed action may have little impact on some of the larger factors contributing to inflation, such as energy prices and continued supply chain issues.  The “what if” scenarios given above would be the very best outcomes but they also may be the least likely at this point.  Hopefully those odds improve in coming weeks. 

This week marks the end of the month and end of the quarter so there is the potential for added volatility, especially early in the week, but given what we’ve experienced this year may not be too much out of the ordinary. The end of the week will most likely be quiet as we coast into the holiday weekend.  When it comes to having a solid income and investment plan, be sure to position yourself with the best chances of winning and not find yourself facing a no-win situation. We are here to help you increase your odds of success. 

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260