Tax Planning

Time to Transition, but Not Forget

Most people view Memorial Day as the beginning of summer but it is important not to forget the real reason for the holiday – a day of remembrance for those who gave their lives fighting for our country while serving in the Armed Forces.  We must never forget those individuals who gave the ultimate sacrifice fighting for our freedoms.  The gratitude we provide as a nation not only extends to those individuals but also to their families.  Be sure to take time to honor and remember those who have died while serving.  Because of where it falls in the year, the last Monday in May, it does mark the unofficial beginning of summer including the transition to much warmer weather, welcomed by most in our part of the country.  This year investors are hoping it also brings a transition in the markets since this has been a challenging year thus far, with last week giving us some glimmers of hope. 

The stock market finally broke its eight-week losing streak, tallying the strongest one-week performance in 18 months.  Stocks began to rally on Wednesday with the release of the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting which showed the Fed has stated they are willing to take whatever steps are necessary to fight inflation. This was interpreted to mean they will continue to aggressively raise interest rates and came as welcome news to the markets which have been mired by the prospects of continued elevated levels of inflation, exacerbated over the last few months by higher energy prices.  The markets showed strength throughout the remainder of the week, including on Friday after the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed inflation remaining elevated but less than the previous month.  This could indicate we are now past “peak” inflation and inflation will slow in coming months, but it will take a few months to determine if this is in fact a trend, or a temporary variation in data. With energy prices stabilizing and housing beginning to show signs of softening, we think inflation will slow over the next few months but will continue to remain above historical averages.  Expect to see further increases in consumer prices, especially since many supply chain issues continue to persist and will take time to fully resolve.       

Sell in May?

The old adage of “Sell in May and Go Away” may not be wise to follow this year. Because the markets have suffered some of their steepest losses in history during the first five months of the year, the path of least resistance could be to the upside.  While technically never closing in bear market territory, the S&P 500 remains well off all-time highs.  During elongated periods of down markets there are often rallies where the markets perform strongly over a short time, but eventually continue to head lower.  The performance of the S&P 500 last week could be the beginning of a full-blown rebound or it might be a short-term market bounce.  With the expectation the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, we are not convinced we have seen the market bottom and some headwinds remain for the market, however, we do not see signals of a more drawn-out downturn since many of the market fundamentals remain solid.  Certain sectors of the economy are showing some cracks, such as housing, but employment remains strong, corporate earnings continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than the previous two years, and stock valuations are now much more in-line with historical averages.  Any moves lower in the market, while still very much possible, are likely to be relatively muted. 

We remain vigilant when it comes to consumer spending since consumers make up such a large portion of the overall economy.  Spending for discretionary items is slowing as consumers paychecks are not going as far and essential items, such as food and housing, are now making up much larger parts of household budgets than they were a few months ago.  Last week the broadly watched University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey remained positive but showed a weakening from earlier in the month, thus suggesting spending will continue to slow.  Consumer spending is not expected to pick up again until wage growth catches up with inflation, which appears will take some time and may not occur for the better part of a year, given the current trajectories of each. 

Looking Ahead

The month of May will soon be in the books and we will transition into the summer months, which historically are a time of minimal volatility for the markets.  Despite what has been experienced so far, this year will most likely be no different.  However, we would advise against selling in May and completely forgetting about the markets for the next few months.  It may not hurt to keep some cash available should the market fall further and the rally of last week end up being a bit of a “head-fake” but being completely out of the market could be unwise should the rebound continue in earnest, which has the potential to accelerate quickly. 

The employment reports will be released at the end of this coming week and since employment is such an important component of the economy, this will continue to garner special attention over coming months especially as we try to predict whether or not we will enter a recession. But as we’ve said in the past, it can be fruitless to predict the timing of a recession from the stock market perspective since generally any market downturn occurs well in advance of a recession and may have already occurred.   

The purpose of Memorial Day is to take time to remember the members of our military who fought bravely for our country and did not make it home. This is also a good occasion to remember all loved ones who are no longer with us, including the impact they may have had on your life.  Similar to how Memorial Day marks the beginning of summer and (hopefully) a sustained transition from the cold to the warm, we remain optimistic this also marks a transition to more prosperity in the stock market. If this year’s market volatility has caused you concern, please contact us to review your portfolio as well as ensure your income plan remains intact.     

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Hitting the Bullseye

As the S&P 500 sits on the edge of bear market territory, being down almost 20% from its peak, investors are wondering if we are near the bottom and it is time to buy or are we going to experience more pain and should they sell.  Some people expect to time the market perfectly, buying at the bottom and selling at the top, and understandably so since this is how you could maximize returns in the market.  However, the reality is that while you might get lucky and sell near the top or buy near the bottom once or twice, it is nearly impossible to time the market perfectly, especially on a consistent basis.  Instead of trying to time the market and hit the bullseye, a better strategy is to accept the fact that the stock market not only moves up but also does move down from time to time and this is just part of the normal cycle.  It is so much more important to have a solid financial plan in place to ensure you remain on target. 

This past week brought some real surprises in the form of earnings reports from major retailers, which did not hit the bullseye nor were anywhere close for that matter.  Earnings reports from the Bullseye itself, Target, as well as Wal-Mart showed that consumer spending has shifted from high-margin discretionary items to lower-margin essential items, namely food.  Revenues were higher than a year ago but earnings were much lower since the cost of goods sold was higher and those costs are not able to be fully passed on to consumers.  These reports and what they represented in terms of consumer behavior sent markets lower with a major sell-off last Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to its seventh consecutive losing week for the first time since 2001.  It would have been worse had there not been a strong recovery at the end of the day Friday, a day in which we saw the S&P 500 break the bear market threshold of being 20% below the high reached on January 3^rd of this year.  Investor sentiment is moving lower with many bearish indicators flashing caution signals, not to mention momentum seems to be moving in a negative direction.  Often in the past, it is when sentiment was at its worst that the markets reversed and moved higher. 

Target Practice

The best way to get better at something is to gain more experience, or simply practice. The same can be said of the stock market – sensible investors tend to improve with experience and by studying history.  Most investors can remember the bear markets of 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 but they might be surprised to know that since 1980 the S&P 500 has averaged a downturn of 14% per year.  There have been seven bear markets since 1980, with each one averaging about six and a half months in duration. This includes two separate bear markets during both the tech crash of 2001-2003 and again during the financial crisis of 2008-2009.  Between these separate bear markets, the S&P 500 rebounded 21% and 24%, respectively.  With momentum on the downside, it seems the markets are bound to move lower but if you were to sell at this point, it would be at the risk of missing any potential rebound.  Warren Buffet perhaps said it best when asked why he does not try to time the market, to which he replied, “You have to be right twice.”

To find clues about the future direction of the market, sometimes the best place to look is the market itself.  The stock market tends to be somewhat irrational, often for long lengths of time, but eventually seems to come to its senses.  The recent cooling-off of speculative technology stocks and the tech crash of 2000-2001 are examples of this.  But it is the bond market that more often provides guidance, such as a yield curve inversion foretelling a recession. This is why we now have some optimism – bond yields, especially longer duration, have steadied and even fallen a bit recently. This is an indication the bond market may have been ahead of itself or is now expecting a less substantial rise in interest rates.  If the latter were the case, it would be because inflation slows more than is currently expected, which could provide a boost to the stock market. 

The pullback in rates and possibility of lower inflation could be due to the prospect of demand destruction, which occurs when persistent high prices or limited supply result in reduced demand for goods.  The earnings reports of the major retailers last week indicated this with large buildups of inventories.  A reduction in demand is likely to lead to lower prices from retailers who need to sell off inventory, which should help put a damper on inflation.  And thus, while we anticipate the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in efforts to combat inflation, ironically it may not be the Fed that tames inflation, but rather inflation itself. Higher energy prices will continue and supply chain issues persist, but we are now more optimistic that inflation will moderate over coming months, however it will likely remain elevated above long-term averages for the next year or more. 

Looking Ahead

The upcoming week includes more earnings from retailers, including Costco and Macy’s. There will be an abnormally large focus on Costco given what occurred last week.  The major economic release will be Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.  It is expected this number will remains elevated, indicating a continuation of above average inflation, but the comparison to a month ago should not matter much since we are more interested in the trend versus single data points.  Given the composition of how this data is compiled, it should provide a view into the current state of consumers and what they are spending money on.  Taking a deep dive into the data, it is likely to show that inflation remains elevated but may be decelerating with consumers spending more on essential items than on discretionary items, similar to what we heard from retailers last week.  

We continue to remain cautious on the markets but are gaining optimism.  The farther the market drops, the closer we are to the bottom, and it seems the market is like a coiled spring ready to quickly “pop” when released which is why we could see a swift rebound. Headwinds remain, including the prospect of higher interest rates, continued inflation and slowing growth, but none seem insurmountable and it is likely we are entering a new phase in the economy where this becomes the new normal, at least for the next few years.  Once the markets accept that, they are likely to move on and forge ahead.  It will take some time but eventually energy prices will fall, further lessening inflationary pressures.  This will happen as a result of greater supply or new technology, both of which will take some time to come online. 

At this point you need to ask yourself where you see the stock market in 3 years, 5 years or 10 years.  If you think it will be higher then you should remain invested.  If you think it will be lower then you should seek alternatives, knowing that some may also be money-losing propositions in the sense you will experience an erosion in purchasing power with returns that are unable to keep up with inflation.  Markets tend to move up and down, often times dramatically in the short term, but history has shown over the long-term stock prices tend to move higher.  If you have savings you expect to spend in the short term, it should not be invested in the stock market.  Only money you do not plan to spend for a few years should be invested so you have time to ride out volatility. When it comes to investing you do not have to pick every investment perfectly or time the market exactly to find success in reaching your goals; you do not have to hit the bullseye, you just need to have a solid financial plan and ensure you remain on the target.

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

A Bear Hug (and Kiss)

The definition of a bear market is one in which the value of the stock market, or more precisely a particular stock index, falls by 20% or more from its peak.  For those who have cash available to invest, a bear market can provide excellent opportunities.  Famed money manager Shelby Cullom Davis was quoted saying, “You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” He was referring to the fact that stocks can be bought cheaply during bear markets.  Sometimes these are referred to as generational buying opportunities but given that we have experienced three (and teetering on a fourth) bear markets since the turn of the century these seem more like once in a decade, or once every few years, opportunities.  On the other hand, if you are fully invested the goal is not to panic and sell at a low, missing out on a potential rebound.  Watching your account value drop precipitously undoubtedly causes concern, especially if it represents the savings you worked hard to build and will be relying upon to maintain your lifestyle in retirement.  We always like to remind our friends and clients that investing in the stock market should be a long-term proposition and not based upon short-term movements in the markets. 

Despite a 3% rise on Friday, the Nasdaq Composite remains more than 25% off its highs and seems to have fully embraced being in a bear market as investors have dumped tech stocks.   The S&P 500 “kissed” a bear market last week, missing it by only a few points before staging a rebound. The major indices again finished the week lower, marking six weeks in a row with losses for the first time since 2011.  A strong bounce-back rally on Friday was led by the most speculative names, which are also those that have lost the most during the recent market carnage.  While this bounce does give hope we are at or near the bottom, we remain skeptical since the higher quality names were not the market leaders.  Also, when a bottom is truly reached we would expect to see capitulation, which is when a significant portion of investors succumb to fear and sell over a short period of time, causing stock prices to move even lower.  Despite numerous headwinds in the short-term, we remain optimistic in the long-term.  It seems much of the “bad” news, including multiple interest rate hikes from the Fed and slowing growth, have already been factored into the market.  Quarterly earnings reports have been solid with a solid majority of companies beating estimates.  Bearish signals remain in the markets, such as low levels of investor sentiment, but these often are contra-indicators since individual investors tend to lose confidence right when the market reaches the bottom. 

Bare Necessities

Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that consumer prices increased by 8.3% over the past year, which was a little higher than expected, but lower than the previous month.  This report was interpreted by many to mean that inflation is stabilizing even though it remains elevated, however it will most likely take months to determine if this is the beginning of a trend lower or just some minor month-to-month variances.  Housing costs make up over 40% of the CPI measure so it can be seen how the strong real estate market and associated increase in real estate prices has had an outsized impact on the CPI being reported. Higher mortgage rates coupled with increases in real estate prices has led to housing now becoming less affordable.  There seems to be a high probability of the real estate market slowing and while prices may not drop, they very well could level off which would then slow the increases in CPI being reported. For many people, especially those with a fixed rate mortgage, most of the cost of housing is fixed and will not change. Inflation reported by the government is a good indicator of the direction of inflation but is probably not the most accurate measure of the true magnitude of inflation for each individual and therefore it is important to determine your own rate of inflation by comparing differences in prices of the goods and services you spend your money on. 

The other “bare necessities,” which include transportation, food, and medical care, combined make up just under 40% of CPI and this is where we continue to see significant price increases.  For many people, when the prices of essential items increase there is less money to spend on discretionary items.  For example, if forced to choose between buying a loaf of bread and a Netflix subscription, it is safe to assume any rational person would choose the loaf of bread.  Sharp increases in food and energy prices leading to consumers cutting back on discretionary spending is a major reason why consumer sentiment is now at its lowest level since 2011, as was reported last week by the widely followed University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. 

It is expected that recent geo-political events will have a lasting impact on the world order, especially global trade, so we expect higher food and energy prices to continue.  At some point they should stabilize, but even when they do, prices are already much higher than they were previously, creating burdens for many households.  Again using bread as an example, if the cost of a loaf of bread increases from $2 to $3, that would be a 50% rise in inflation.  If the price remains at $3 then inflation is reported as being zero, however the cost of that loaf of bread remains 50% higher than before. Eventually we expect the pace of inflation to subside, but prices will remain significantly higher.  To illustrate how this could affect your retirement spending – using the Rule of 72 for some quick math, if inflation is steady at 3%, purchasing power is cut in half in approximately 24 years.  If inflation is steady at 6%, purchasing power is cut by three-fourths during the same time period; meaning the spending power of one dollar today will only be 25 cents at the end of 24 years, which is the amount of time many people now spend in retirement.  It is very unlikely the rate of inflation will remain steady for that duration, but this helps demonstrate the importance of planning for necessary increases in the amount of money needed to maintain your lifestyle. 

Looking Ahead

The focus of the upcoming week will be on retail sales with monthly retail sales reported from the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday and earnings reports from giants Wal-Mart, Target, Lowe’s, Home Depot and Macy’s throughout the week.  We will especially be watching for forward guidance from these companies since wholesale costs continue to rise, putting pressure on profit margins and sales since price increases are frequently passed along to consumers.

We are frequently being asked when we will reach the market bottom.  Of course we do not have a magic crystal ball but perhaps we have in the short-term.  We do remain cautious since we do not think we have yet experienced the worst since headwinds from rising interest rates, slowing growth and inflation persist.  Hopefully we are wrong and the market rebounds from here, which could occur since so much has seemingly already been priced into the market. Regardless, there are going to be challenges ahead.  Corrections and bear markets are part of a normal market cycle, and we remain confident brighter days will eventually come.  Give us a call if you would like to review your portfolio to ensure it is positioned properly for all market conditions.    

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260