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Tax Planning

Weekly Insights 1/24/2022 – 1/27/2022

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Does Your Dog Bite?

In the film The Pink Panther Strikes Again, as Inspector Clouseau is checking into a hotel he sees a dog sitting on the floor and asks the innkeeper if his dog bites.  The man says no, so Clouseau proceeds to pet the dog and is subsequently bitten.  An obviously agitated Clouseau says to the innkeeper, “I thought you said your dog did not bite,” to which the innkeeper responds, “That is not my dog.”  The stock market also seems to bite investors from time to time, just as it has over the past couple of weeks.  The year has gotten off to a rough start.  The S&P 500 is lower by more than 7.5% since the beginning of the year and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is now in correction territory as it has fallen by more than 14% from its all-time high reached in November.  Last week was the worst week for the markets since the beginning of the pandemic.  What caused this pullback and is it going to continue? 

The largest sources of angst in the market are continued inflation and possible action from the Federal Reserve, both of which are very much intertwined.  Recent inflation data indicated that year-over-year price increases are at the highest levels since the early 1980’s with prices of consumer goods 7% higher than a year ago and wholesale inflation nearing 10%.  It seems inevitable the Fed will raise interest rates this year in an attempt to combat inflation, with the questions being how much and how often?  Current estimates range anywhere from two to seven interest rate hikes this year.  It is widely anticipated the Fed will begin to raise rates at their March meeting with some speculation of the first rate hike possibly being half of a percent and not the more traditional quarter percent rate hike.  Our expectation is the Fed will start slow and raise rates by a quarter of a percent and then determine the effects on the economy and markets, which generally takes at least a few months to fully ascertain.  The Fed will want to be deliberate and not risk unnecessary damage to the economy so we anticipate they will raise rates in quarter point increments throughout the year, most likely once each quarter.

The prospect of higher interest rates, which lead to higher borrowing costs, have had an outsized effect on technology stocks which were already trading at expanded price to earnings (P/E) multiples.  Stock prices are based upon expected future earnings, which are then discounted back to present value based upon current interest rates.  As interest rates rise, it makes the present value of future earnings less, causing downward pressure on stock prices.  This has a lesser impact on companies with established earnings.  Abnormally high Price-to-Earnings ratios last year were mostly brushed off as being a result of irregular earnings due to the pandemic but as we are now getting farther away from the lockdowns which temporarily crippled the economy, earnings are being more closely watched and those companies still trading at high multiples are being punished.  Conversely, with the recent market pullback many companies with histories of stable earnings are now trading at fairly reasonable multiples. 

Safely Losing Money…

In anticipation of action from the Fed, interest rates have moved higher causing bond prices to fall.  As a reminder, there is an inverse relationship between bond yields and bond prices.  Historically high-quality bonds have been viewed as a safe haven during times of volatility in the stock market and therefore have been a good way to diversify a stock portfolio and reduce overall portfolio risk.  However, with interest rates being very low and upward pressure in yields from inflation, they have not provided this safe haven nor do we expect them to over the next few years as interest rates rise.  Year to date the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, which is the most widely followed bond benchmark, is lower by about 1.5%. This follows a loss of almost 2% in 2021.

Many of our clients have protected income and therefore should not be overly concerned with the recent market volatility since they are not required to take money out of stocks or bonds when they are trading lower, as they are now.  They should be able to rest easy despite the market volatility.  At Secured Retirement, our goal is to ensure our clients remain confident in their retirement spending and have reliable income regardless of what the markets are doing. 

Looking Ahead

We would refer to the recent market pullback as a “reset” since earnings are again being considered and high-quality names are back in focus.  The coming week brings a Federal Reserve meeting, where there is a chance of an interest rate hike, but most likely will set the stage for a March liftoff.  Earnings season will be fully underway, which we think will provide some support for the market.  Thus far earnings have been mixed but we have seen more earnings surprises than disappointments.  We anticipate continued earnings growth this year, but not at the pace seen last year.  And despite the recent setbacks in the market, we remain optimistic for what lies ahead.

Cash or low-yielding investment are losing purchasing power due to inflation remaining elevated.  If you have been on the fence and hesitant to invest cash, this pullback provides a great opportunity to do so but we would recommend being selective given the rotation occurring in the market.  Give us a call to discuss investment strategies, especially if you are worried about recent market volatility.  There is quite a bit going on in the markets right now and you do not want to get bitten.   

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 1/17/2022 – 1/21/2022

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Where Do We Go? Oh, Where Do We Go Now? (Part II)

The title to this week’s (and last week’s) update was stolen from lyrics to a popular song from a 1980’s rock band.  Other things that are “rocky” include Mount Rushmore, movies about a determined boxer, an ice cream flavor and a one-word description of the stock market thus far in 2022.  The highest inflation readings in 40 years coupled with disappointing retail sales numbers led to continued volatility and downward pressure over the past week. These data releases were not a complete surprise but they do point to some changes in the economy and come as a harbinger of what may lie ahead.  Higher inflation, questions regarding the strength of the labor market, a possible slowdown in consumer spending and potential action from the Federal Reserve have led investors to be jittery.  How long with this continue?  What will the rest of the year bring?  Continuing from where we left off last week, we want to offer the remainder of our predictions for what will happen with the markets and economy and the factors driving it. 

Energy prices continue to face upward pressure.  Oil prices have risen considerably as demand has again increased from the trough of when the pandemic began.  We anticipate this to continue, but not to the extent they rose last year.  Issues with domestic supply and the fact that OPEC countries benefit from higher prices so they have little incentive to increase output, coupled with increased demand will drive prices even higher.  Global electricity demand is expected to grow sharply in coming years and despite the increase in renewable energy sources, fossil fuels continue to provide the majority of electrical power generation, especially in foreign countries.  This leads to our next prediction….

Emerging Markets perform well, but probably not until the last half of the year.  2021 was a challenging year for emerging markets, especially in comparison to developed markets, but we think 2022 will be better.  Many less-developed countries have felt an outsized effect from COVID and will likely continue to in the near term but eventually will rebound.  Valuations in emerging markets are very attractive compared to developed markets and tremendous potential for growth from modernization and demographics remain.  There are many factors which have the potential to impact this prediction so this is the one we are most likely to alter our view upon as we get further into the year.  Other areas of the markets we are watching include ….

Small Caps outperforming Large Caps. Mega-cap stocks have driven the markets over the past two years as we have seen meteoric rises in many very large companies.  This has led to inflated valuations for certain large cap names.  Small caps have lagged the broader market the past few years yet fundamentals remain solid, making valuations of many small cap companies more reasonable.  Similar to large caps, strong earnings and solid balance sheets are again in focus so performance will also be dependent upon quality of the individual names.  As we mentioned last week, we expect market returns to be more modest this year so even if small caps do outperform large caps returns could be somewhat muted.  This covers the stock market, but when it comes to bonds…..

The yield curve flattens.  The yield curve is a line showing the difference in yields between bonds of differing maturities.  Generally longer term interest rates are higher than short term rates, but when the difference between the two becomes less the curve is considered to be “flattening.”  Conversely, if the difference is greater it is said to be “steepening.”  The Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy by raising the Fed Funds rate to combat inflation so we anticipate other short-term rates to move higher as well.  We also expect longer term rates to increase, but not as much as short-term rates, leading to a flattening of the yield curve.  There is also a possibility the yield curve inverts, which occurs when short term rates are higher than long term rates.  A flatter yield curve generally indicates slower economic growth.  With yields expected to rise across the curve, this is not shaping up to be a good year for bonds.  And lastly…

The mid-term elections will change the balance of power in Washington. Most mid-term elections see a wave of members of the opposite party from the presidential administration being elected.  This year looks to be no different and may even result in higher turnover given the unpopularity of the current administration.  There is a lot of time between now and the elections later this year so many things could occur, but even if the popularity of the current administration were to improve significantly the odds are there will still be a red wave with the power of Congress shifting from the Democrats to the Republicans. This would create gridlock, which is perceived as being positive for the markets, and increases the chances of the current administration becoming a lame duck. Since this balance of power is widely anticipated, it can also be assumed the current administration will try to push their legislative agenda through Congress in the coming months. If they are successful, this could include increased government spending and possibly higher tax rates. 

Looking Ahead

Even though the calendar changes when we enter a new year, most things remain about the same or continue on the trajectory they were already on.  This remains true for the markets and economy, however there do seem to be some shifts occurring which perhaps began a couple of months ago.  This year is shaping up to be different than what we have experienced the past couple of years.  The greatest threats to the market are not what has been mentioned above but rather what we do not anticipate; unexpected events could alter the course of the markets and therefore have an impact on our predictions.  We will remain vigilant, as we always are, to market and economic events so we can best position portfolios for our clients. 

We invite you to join us for our Lunch & Learn on January 24th when we will discuss our outlook for 2022 in greater detail.  We hope your year has started well and you are optimistic for what lies ahead. Please contact us if you would like to discuss your individual situation.    

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 1/3/22 – 1/7/22

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Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!

The beginning of an event or occasion brings high levels of anticipation and possibly anxiety.  This might include sporting events, movies, leaving on a trip, or starting a new job.  Beginning a new year is no different as there is much optimism for what lies ahead and perhaps some trepidation on how it may be different than the past.  Given the recent challenges faced, there should be more hope and less worry since everyone has been forced to face, overcome, and grow from adversity.  From these experiences we should all feel stronger and more confident in facing what lies ahead.  There are lessons learned from 2021 which we can carry into 2022; below are three we would like to share as the new year kicks off.  

Never take anything for granted. Being safe in place taught us to cherish time together and to appreciate ability to freely leave our homes, visit stores, and dine out. Access to supplies and cheap gasoline are no longer assumed as readily available. Our shortages draw no comparison to earlier generations’ food and energy demands. However, we will remember to bring gratitude for what we do have, even the basics often taken for granted.

History has a way of repeating itself. Oftentimes, we hear the phrase, “things are different now,” followed by why the world has changed (which it has) and closed with why the past will never happen again. Hearing this is especially true to talk on the stock market and economy. Proceed with caution when speaking of inflation. We’ve grown accustomed to low levels that leads to complacency toward spending and investing. This year brace for elevated inflation with experts drawing historic parallels to post-World War II and the 1970s. History repeats itself so apply lessons from the past. 

Be prepared but be adaptable. To work from home shows the marvels of modern technology and ability to pivot and adjust. The “Great Resignation” describes the multitudes leaving jobs to pursue other interests. Unfortunately, many involuntarily lost jobs as a result of shifts in the workforce. Regardless of why, if there is a career transition, have a plan in place should your circumstances change. Be adaptable. You never know where opportunities lie. 

Yes, Virginia, There is a Santa Claus

With the focus on the year ahead, it would not be difficult to overlook what has occurred in the stock market over the past couple of weeks.  But since this is likely to set the tone as we embark on the new year, it is worth mentioning.  The fourth quarter of 2021 was the best quarter of the year for the major stock market indices.  The year-end “Santa Claus” rally we all wished for came to fruition with the S&P 500 climbing about 5% from its short-term low point on December 20th.  This may not be over yet, as this type of rally tends to extend into the first two trading sessions of the new year and bodes well for entire month of January since historically the markets have enjoyed strong performance when coming off solid year-end momentum.    

When the calendar flips over, the stock market does not start again at zero; it continues where it left off the previous year.  The same also goes for the economy and society in general.  We begin the year with the same concerns we had when 2021 came to an end, such as inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and stretched stock price valuations. These will certainly change throughout the upcoming year, either better or worse.  But we also need to remember the positive factors in the market, including robust earnings outlooks, stable consumer spending, and still-accommodative monetary policy.  Our projection is that the positives will again outweigh the negatives in the market and we will see positive returns, albeit probably not to the same levels as we were able to enjoy the last two years.  

Looking Ahead 

The new year is going to bring new challenges and the markets will act differently than they have in the past couple of years.  We don’t know for certain what will happen over the next 365 days, but there are bound to be some surprises.  We can plan ahead with what we do know and expect, learning from past experiences.  For example, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.  We also expect inflation to continue at higher levels than what we’ve faced in recent decades.  The challenge will be to position portfolios accordingly and take advantage of these opportunities.  

As the new year begins, we hope that you view it with anticipation and optimism.  Maybe you personally want to set a resolution to try something new or different.  Here at Secured Retirement, we look forward to providing you peace of mind for all life’s lessons. If any of these lessons spur a need for plan adjustments, let’s connect and chart a smooth course for the year ahead.  

Wishing you all a happy, healthful, and prosperous 2022!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/27/21 – 12/31/21

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Party Like It’s…

Without a doubt the past two years have been challenging with many happy to bid adieu to 2021.  As we look ahead to 2022 there is optimism, but we would be remiss to not reflect on this last year before moving ahead.  Notwithstanding personal health issues or any negative impacts the pandemic may have had on loved ones, in most regards 2021 could be considered a decent year, especially when compared to a year ago.      

From the stock market point-of-view, 2021 was a decent year with the S&P 500 returning more than 25% year-to-date.  On a long-term historical, this benchmark returns on average somewhere between 8-10% annually making this year well above average.  In comparison, 2020 had the index returning over 18%, despite the nearly 35% nosedive experienced by the market when COVID first threw the world into unexpected chaos. 

The economy has stabilized and remains robust with unemployment levels falling dramatically throughout the past year and nearing some of the lowest levels in history. Personal incomes and average hourly earnings rose sharply and are at all-time highs.  The economy is now expanding on its own regardless of the government stimulus payments and pent-up demands.  Unfortunately, inflation is forecasted to be the highest this country has seen in decades.  Higher prices equate to a higher cost of living and when viewed in real-terms, income and wages do not stretch as far as they used to.  Generally higher prices occur due to economic growth, therefore not all inflation is negative.  However, when personal income is not aligned with inflation it creates a difficult environment for consumers and workers, as experienced now. 

This last week, the markets began with a sharply negative day attributed primarily to news that the Build Back Better (aka federal spending) bill does not have the support needed for passage. Goldman Sachs indicated that GDP growth in 2022 will be less than previous expectations due to the lack of passage of the over trillion-dollar spending bill.  While the individuals at Goldman Sacks may be very knowledgeable and intelligent, we somewhat disagree with their assessment.  Yes, some of the spending would go towards certain social programs that benefit the economy in the short-term, but the amount of spending proposed would add increased liquidity into the economy, further fueling inflation.  Further, not all the spending would contribute towards growth and the expenditures require further funding through the combination of tax hikes and debt, which would be a drag on future growth especially when looking out longer-term.

Also affecting the markets was further insight regarding shifts in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the increase in omicron COVID cases with the discussion of potential shutdowns, including soft lockdowns. Soft lockdowns are those driven by business reductions and closings due to the virus spread.  Tuesday’s quickrebound energized the market with continued gains throughout the rest of the week where we now again sit at all-time highs.  It

seems the Santa Claus rally we all hoped for came to fruition, especially if it continues this coming week to finish the year strong. 

Watching the Ball Drop

When we transition from year to year there is a distinct cut over on the calendar, but most other aspects of our lives do not change significantly as the ball drops in Times Square. This is also very true of the markets and economy.  As we enter 2022, it is highly likely inflation will continue to make headlines, but we also expect employment and consumer spending to remain strong.  Last week Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which measures the change in prices of consumer goods and services, was reported as being 5.7% higher than a year ago.  This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and well above their comfort zone of 2-3%.  Unless something dramatically changes, we expect this coming year for there to be a lot of activity from the Fed, such as adjusting interest rates. 

The newly released Consumer Confidence Index indicates continued optimism amongst consumers for income, business, and labor market conditions and setting the stage for continued growth as we enter the new year.  There could be headwinds to confidence and consumer spending from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic. Consumer spending looks to remain strong, especially for larger ticket items such as homes, appliances, automobiles, and vacations.  We will also be watching retail sales numbers reported for the holiday season determining how robust spending was and if there were any supply chain issues. 

Looking Ahead

As the yuletide cheer subsides and the holiday decorations are put away, let us not forget the memories created from the holiday seasons.  The same can be said of the markets – we learned valuable lessons from years past and the last two are certainly no exception.  We continuously use these learnings to position portfolios. 

We hope the momentum seen in the markets continues and the Santa Claus rally stays intact through the end of the year.  2021 remains a solid performance for the stock market where the party can last past New Year’s Eve.  We remain hopeful and optimistic for the year ahead but also feel investors will face different challenges than experienced in the recent past.  As we look ahead, please do not hesitate to contact us should you want to review your portfolio or discuss our views on what might occur in 2022. 

Wishing you all a very happy, healthy, and safe New Year!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/20/21 – 12/24/21

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You’ll Shoot Your Eye Out

As you progress through life, the things you desire most will most likely change.  A child with few worries about the outside world may want nothing more than receiving a special toy as a gift.  Perhaps this toy would be a Red Ryder BB Gun, as was longed for by a young Ralphie Parker in the classic film, “A Christmas Story.”  When you get older into adulthood, you are likely to concern yourself with bigger issues and certain “toys,” which instead of BB guns might be hunting rifles, golf clubs or even a boat, may still be wanted but in the big picture they often become less important than items of greater significance in your life.  For those saving for retirement, one of their greatest wishes, if not the greatest, may be to ensure they have accumulated enough money to continue to support their income and lifestyle.  Regardless of what you might yearn for most, anyone reading this is most likely wanting a stock market to continue the upward trajectory it has generally been on over the past decade. 

Unfortunately, this was not the case last week with the stock markets moving lower, which was primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve (the Fed) meeting in the middle of the week.  Markets traded lower early in the week in anticipation of this meeting and as expected the Fed announced they were going to reduce their monthly bond buying program faster than when this taper was announced last month. It is now forecasted the program will be wrapped up in March, setting the stage for an interest rate hike in June, or possibly sooner, with projections for three total rate hikes in the year.  The stock markets reacted positively to this announcement on Wednesday, even though it was widely anticipated, because there was some concern the Fed would take more drastic measures to combat inflation such as further speeding up the taper of the bond buying program or even raising rates immediately. 

Many stocks, specifically many technology companies, were hit particularly hard later in the week due to worries over higher interest rates and slowing economic activity. This might mark the beginning of a shift from momentum stocks, which have performed very well over the past few years, and into more of the value sectors as the markets pay more attention to valuations in a rising interest rate environment.  There was relatively little change in the narrative surrounding the Omicron variant, but it does remain an overhang and therefore causes continued headwinds to the market.   

The Biden Administration’s Build Back Better spending bill had its tongue stuck to a frozen flagpole over the weekend with Sen. Joe Manchin announcing he would not be supporting the bill, effectively killing it.  If this bill would have passed it could have produced a short-term catalyst to push markets higher since it introduces a high level of government spending, but in the long-term it was likely to cause even more inflation and potentially be a drag on economic growth from higher levels of government debt.  There is always a chance the parties will continue talks and come to an agreement which would resurrect the bill, but chances are minimal and if that were to occur it would not be until sometime in 2022. 

The Soft Glow…

A soft glow is a stark contrast to burning bright with the former a reference to the “major award” (aka leg lamp) won in a contest by the Old Man (Ralphie’s father) in the aforementioned movie while the latter could be used to describe the current state of inflation.  The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices of goods before they are sold to consumers, last month rose more than analysts’ estimates at a record high pace of 9.6% compared to a year ago.  These price increases are generally passed along to consumers and with PPI increases accelerating it is very likely consumer prices will continue to move higher in coming months.  We expect inflation to remain a large threat to investors’ returns in 2022 and beyond. 

Last week retail sales for the month of November were reported and came in less than expectations, but still showed a monthly increase in spending by consumers.  Previously October retail sales were reported noticeably stronger than expectations, so the thought is the most recent numbers reflect consumers pulling forward holiday shopping because of concerns about product availability due to supply chain issues.  Indications remain that holiday spending this year will surpass previous years and be the highest on record, which can be attributed to greater personal wealth and higher household incomes thanks to a strong stock market, solid labor market and stimulus payments.  We monitor consumer spending closely since it comprises over two-thirds of GDP and we will remain especially watchful going into the new year when spending traditionally slows down and now that the stimulus payments have ended but remain optimistic for continued strength in spending from increasing wages and a robust employment situation. 

Looking Ahead

With the year winding down and major holidays approaching, we would expect the markets to get quieter.  Trading volumes are decreasing, as tends to be the case this time of year.  On the economic front, there are some key data releases coming up this week including consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which happens to be the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.  Given the holiday and lower trading activity we do not expect any of these to have a major impact on the markets unless there is a major surprise, either to the downside or upside.  We follow these numbers closely since they provide signals about the health of the economy and can impact how the stock market reacts.  With recent market events, we will also be keeping a vigilant eye on how various sectors perform over the next few weeks to look for indications on which direction the market might be headed and what we think the new year will bring so we can best position our clients’ portfolios to protect against risk and capitalize on opportunities.

We remain hopeful for a year-end Santa Claus rally in the stock market, which would satisfy the author’s Christmas wish.  If this does not come to fruition, settling for a leg lamp might not be so bad since the market has already provided another great year of returns.  As always, we remain available to discuss market events and portfolio positioning.  With 2021 winding down, it is time to start looking ahead to 2022 and consider how the world might be different going forward.  But for this week, hopefully you are able to spend time with family or friends to celebrate the holiday.  If Santa does bring you a Red Ryder BB gun, don’t shoot your eye out. 

Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # (952) 460-3260

Weekly Insights 12/13/21 – 12/17/21

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Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow

A relatively mild start to the winter season came to a rather abrupt end last week with colder temperatures and measurable snow. On its own, snow can provide pretty scenery, however for those taking part in a daily commute the snow can cause headaches. When taken individually, snow and commuting are independent events, however one can have a major bearing on the other. While it could be argued the stock market itself can impact outside events, the stock market is very susceptible to being influenced by outside events.

The stock market began last week on some very high notes, putting together the best two-day streak in over a year. The uplift in the market was attributed to the realization the Omicron variant is more mild than previous COVID variants and therefore not expected to lead to further restrictions which could dampen economic growth. The re-opening stocks, such as travel companies and restaurants, led the rally to rebound from their losses the prior week. The markets finished the week quieter on the heels of a hot inflation report and now sit at the same levels where they were trading prior to Thanksgiving and the latest COVID scare. This provides another example of the importance of maintaining a long-term view and not getting caught up in the short-term noise.

After the excitement in the markets the past couple of weeks, we are starting to experience lower trading volumes which we expect to continue to decrease through the end of the year. Much of the portfolio positioning from large institutional investors and tax harvesting from individual investors is winding down. Preliminary reports of holiday consumer spending have been positive with some reports of supply chain and inventory issues, but many retailers remain optimistic that conditions are improving and shelves are well stocked.

Rising Prices

Consumers are fully aware that prices are rising even without data releases from the government. This is especially true during the holiday season when spending for gifts and food is generally at higher levels than at other times during the year. The monthly data release on inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed that consumer prices have risen by 6.8% compared to a year ago; the highest level since 1982. This report was slightly higher than analysts’ expectations and continues to trend higher. What is alarming is that inflation seems to be gaining momentum with the amount of change from month to month growing larger. Barring an unanticipated event, the rate of increases will need to abate before inflation moderates. We anticipate elevated levels of inflation for the foreseeable future, further cutting into the buying power of consumers as well as the real rates of returns for investors. We will be watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) release this coming week since producer prices tend to be a forerunner of consumer prices.

Job openings remain at the highest levels in history, as was reported last week. The employment reports have shown that unemployment remains low and continues to improve, evidenced last week when the number of continuing unemployment claims hit its lowest level since 1969. Despite this low level of unemployment, there remains some slack in the labor market as we are not yet at what is considered full employment. Labor costs, which have been rising at a rate markedly above the long-term average since the beginning of this year and contributing to inflation, with signals this will continue and could accelerate. Having abundant jobs available, which companies need to fill, coupled with low rates of unemployment are very likely to lead to higher wage pressure.

Looking Ahead

The focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) meeting. Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the committee indicate there will be discussion about speeding up the taper of asset purchases with the expectation being the program will wind down faster than previously anticipated. This will set the stage for multiple interest rate hikes in 2022. At the conclusion of their meeting, the Fed will also release the results of their quarterly internal survey of interest rate expectations going forward, commonly referred to as the Dot Plot. It is projected this will show two rate hikes next year with increasing odds of a third. This is a change from the previous quarter which showed only one rate hike next year. Over the past couple of decades the Fed has strived for transparency, minimizing the impact their actions have on the stock market. However, given the current inflation situation and rapidly changing dynamics in the economy they now have to act faster than in the past, allowing less time to telegraph their intentions. Market reactions, both stock and bond, are most likely to be limited since the markets responded, somewhat sharply, to Chairman Powell’s comments two weeks ago when he provided a preview of discussions at this meeting, unless there is a major deviation from prior comments which would come as a surprise.

The onset of snow does guarantee winter has arrived but unfortunately does not guarantee a year-end Santa Claus rally in the stock market, for which we remain hopeful. For the time being enjoy the scenery the snow provides as it should help get us all in the holiday spirit. We remain available to discuss market events, how they impact your portfolio and strategies to protect against downturns while taking advantage of opportunities. Do not hesitate to give us a call to discuss your individual situation and any year-end strategies.

Wishing you all a happy and joyous holiday season!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist

Secured Retirement

nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.

info@securedretirements.com Office phone # (952) 460-3260

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Danielle Christensen

Paraplanner

Danielle is dedicated to serving clients to achieve their retirement goals. As a Paraplanner, Danielle helps the advisors with the administrative side of preparing and documenting meetings. She is a graduate of the College of St. Benedict, with a degree in Business Administration and began working with Secured Retirement in May of 2023.

Danielle is a lifelong Minnesotan and currently resides in Farmington with her boyfriend and their senior rescue pittie/American Bulldog mix, Tukka.  In her free time, Danielle enjoys attending concerts and traveling. She is also an avid fan of the Minnesota Wild and loves to be at as many games as possible during the season!