Insights

Bottoms Up

The term “bottoms up” is most often associated with a toast or telling people to finish their drinks, implying the bottom of the drink glass is being raised as the drink is consumed.  In business, “bottom up” refers to taking action based upon feedback from lower levels of a hierarchy, generally front-line employees.  And in investing, “bottom-up” refers to making investment decisions based upon individual security selection or sector analysis, as compared to top-down analysis which takes a larger view and begins with analysis of the macroeconomic environment.  (Author’s note: In our updates we tend to discuss much more of the macroeconomic environment and market conditions, compared to looking at individual stocks and sectors, so this would be considered top-down analysis.)  But now might be a good time to contemplate whether this is a “bottom up” situation, one different than any described above – has the stock market bottomed and are we on our way back up?   

We will not definitively know the answer to that question for several months, but there are several indications the markets may have bottomed about a month ago.  Thus far the markets have had a strong showing in July with the S&P 500 being higher by about 5%, led by the stocks most beat up this year – technology.  Interest rates saw a spike in mid-June and have since retreated, providing a reprieve to growth stocks whose values are vulnerable to interest rates since stock prices reflect estimates of the present value of future earnings.  We have also experienced a pullback in commodity prices, including energy, giving hope that inflation may be moderating.  Despite this bounce, the S&P 500 remains about 15% off its all-time highs reached earlier this year.

Fears of an impending recession have been exacerbated by the inversion of the bond yield curve with 2-year U.S. Treasuries now yielding more than 10-year U.S. Treasuries.  Ironically, even though the bond market is signaling a slowdown the stock market is viewing this as a positive since a recession could help quell inflation and eventually lead to lower interest rates.  A slowdown in economic activity during a recession is likely to lead to lower demand, alleviating upward pressure on prices. Recessions can even be deflationary, depending upon the severity and length. 

Grab Your Drinks

Much attention is paid to monthly economic releases, but over time corporate earnings drive stock market returns more than any other factor.  Earnings season is gearing up in earnest with some of the largest tech companies reporting this week. The earnings already reported show that demand remains solid but inflation is providing headwinds.  Tight labor markets continue to cause issues, contributing to higher costs and hindering growth prospects.  Many companies expect inflation to moderate during the second half of the year.  Earnings expectations have already been lowered and the earnings reported so far have not been spectacular with only a handful of names beating expectations.  The fact that earnings have not been worse than the lowered expectations does provide optimism and is providing a boost to the stock market.  And there is still much more to come, so grab a drink and watch what happens with earnings reports over the next few weeks; they will drive the markets and provide a clearer picture on whether we are indeed moving off the bottom and on the path to recovery. 

We also cannot forget other highly anticipated events of the week, especially the Federal Reserve meeting.  It is widely expected they will raise interest rates by three-quarters of one percent or 75 basis points (a basis point is equal to 0.01%).  After the hotter than expected CPI report a couple of weeks ago there was speculation they would raise rates by a full point but that has now been mostly suppressed after recent comments from Fed officials.  At this time, it seems likely the Fed will raise rates by at least a half point, or 50 basis points, at their September meetings.  Inflation may be abating and with the potential for a recession on the horizon there is some thought the Fed will have to reverse course and begin to lower rates sometime in 2023.

Looking Ahead

It is going to be a very busy week with earnings and the Fed, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports.  The PCE Deflator is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation and, similar to CPI, is expected to remain elevated and well above the Fed’s comfort level of 2-3% annual inflation.  With all the events of the week, it is the GDP report which will likely garner the most attention.  The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a.k.a. economic contraction.  GDP was negative in the first quarter of this year so if this report is also negative, we could “technically” already be in a recession.  Where it gets interesting is that the headline GDP is reported on a real basis, meaning that growth is measured and then adjusted for inflation.  So even though there could be positive economic growth, factoring in inflation will make it appear to be negative.  On a nominal basis, GDP growth is very likely to remain positive so if the report comes in showing contraction, it may be disputed as to whether or not we really are in a recession. 

We remain hopeful the recent stock market strength is the beginning of the bounce from the bottom and this is not merely a short-term bear market rally.  This year has been a real wake-up call for some people, especially for those who became complacent over several years of bull markets.  We remain very optimistic for long-term market prospects but continue to acknowledge there will be volatility over shorter time periods.  Be sure your portfolio is aligned with your level of risk. Both your risk tolerance, what you can handle emotionally, as well as your risk capacity, what amount of money you are able to lose and maintain your lifestyle.  Please give us a call if you would like to discuss your situation. If you are interested in hearing more of our thoughts on the markets, including our outlook for the second half of the year be sure to join us for our monthly Lunch & Learn on July 25^th, either in-person or via livestream online.   

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Runaway Train

A runaway train is one which operates at unsafe speeds due to loss of operator control.  The thought of such an event is likely to conjure images of panic for passengers and anyone in its path.  Higher than expected inflation reports last week added to fears inflation is becoming runaway.  Has the Federal Reserve lost control? Is inflation on a trajectory to become runaway?  We won’t have definitive answers to these questions for a few months, but we can offer our thoughts and assessment. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 9.1% over the past twelve months; the most since 1981.  This reading was even hotter than the previous few months and above expectations, indicating that inflation is continuing to accelerate.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher by a whopping 11.3% compared to a year ago; much higher than the 10.7% consensus estimate.  All inflation numbers seem to be suggesting that inflation is continuing to accelerate.  Both CPI and PPI are reported with “headline” numbers as well as “core” where food and energy, which tend to experience greater price volatility, are removed.  But it is food and energy, along with housing, that are causing the most pain for many Americans and leading to such soaring levels of inflation.  In fact, the Federal Reserve last week even acknowledged the Core CPI and PPI should now be largely ignored since they are not reflective of what most Americans, and people all over the globe, are experiencing.  Gas and food prices are now taking up the largest percentages of household budgets in a generation, if not longer. 

It is no surprise the Fed is seemingly well behind the curve when the Federal Funds target rate is 1.75% and inflation is over 9%.  Action taken thus far seems to be having a very muted impact on inflation.  However, we do need to acknowledge if often takes many months for tighter monetary policy to have a discernible impact on the economy. It tends to take about 6 months to experience the full effects of an interest rate increase and the Fed only began to raise rates in March.  But we now know the threats of inflation were largely ignored for too long and the Fed had a late start and are now trying to catch-up.

Stopping the Train

Stopping a runaway train can be very difficult, especially to do so in a manner where nobody is hurt. The same is true of inflation.  At this point it seems the outcomes will be either inflation truly becomes runaway and causes structural damage to the economy from a long-term reduction in confidence or is contained by the Fed via higher interest rates, which also has the potential to cause damage since it would likely lead to a recession.  There is a chance inflation will “fizzle” out on its own via increased supply, which would imply the supply chain issues we’ve experienced over the past couple of years are resolved, and/or reduced demand from lower spending.  The Fed has very little, if any, control over supply but higher prices and higher costs of borrowing could reduce demand. 

On the demand side, an increase in money supply is perhaps the largest driver of inflation.  The Fed has begun a quantitative tightening (QT) program by selling bonds they held on their balance sheet, sucking money out of the economy. But they have much work to do to get enough money out of the system to have make a noticeable difference in reducing demand to help lower inflation. 

Commodities prices have fallen rather dramatically over the past month, which was not reflected in the most recent reports.  Housing costs, which are the largest component of CPI showed continued increases in the latest report, but there are now reports of listing prices of homes for sale are being dropped which is likely to lead to a moderation, if not some pullback, in housing prices and reduction in housing costs.  A lot can happen over the next month but early indications are we could see a bit of a softening in the inflation reports next month.  We want to stress this is merely a prediction on what the reports will reflect based recent price changes.  It does not imply we think inflation is moderating; in fact we think it will remain elevated through at least the end of the year. 

Looking Ahead

Odds of a 100 basis point, or 1%, interest rate hike by the Fed at their meeting next week have increased greatly.  Previously it seemed to be a foregone conclusion they would raise by 75 basis points, or three-quarters of 1%, with the possibility of only a half-point hike.  That changed after last week’s inflation reports and it looks like it will be either a 0.75% or 1.00% hike as the Fed tries to be more aggressive in their fight with inflation before it becomes out of control.  But if the Fed does hike more aggressively, it also increases the chances of pushing us into a recession. 

Earnings season kicked off last week with many of the major banks reporting.  Earnings drive stock prices and historically we see the stock market move higher 75% of the time during an earnings season.  However, expectations are now being lowered with less consumer activity, higher expenses, and headwinds from higher interest rates.  The earnings already reported were largely disappointing, with local favorite UnitedHealth Group beating estimates and being a notable exception.  Thus far we are not being given much reason for optimism.  However, it is still very early in this earnings cycle and positive surprises could help bolster the stock market, leading to some upside momentum.  Between earnings, the Fed, and the quarterly GDP report, there will be much to pay attention to for the remainder of July. 

Be sure your portfolio is protected and you do not find yourself in an uncontrollable situation that threatens your lifestyle.  A falling stock market and higher costs are leading to some trying times.  We are here to help you feel secure in your retirement, so please give us a call if you would like help ensuring you have complete control over your long-term financial plan. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Fireworks End with a Bang

Last week people across our great nation watched fireworks shows to commemorate our country’s independence.  Most displays end with a grand finale consisting of many fireworks going off at once, resulting in a big BANG!  We experienced plenty of fireworks in the markets during the first half of the year, but is the show over or is the big bang yet to come?

There were many underlying themes during the first half of 2022 including stretched stock valuations, especially in tech stocks; war in Ukraine; high energy prices; the highest levels of inflation seen in 40 years; interest rates moving higher; and a slowing economy with the possibility of a lingering recession.  Most of these are somewhat inter-related but the combination of all led to the worst first half of the year for the S&P 500 Index since 1970.  The Bloomberg Barclay’s Bond Aggregate suffered its worst losses on record.  Almost all major asset classes had negative returns, with most being lower by double digits. The only bright spot was commodities, which were broadly higher by about 30% year-to-date despite giving up nearly 10% in the month of June.  To say 2022 has been difficult for the markets and investors might be a bit of an understatement.        

With the stock market dipping into (and out of) bear market territory and the threat of a recession looming, it may seem the carnage may not be over. Many market “experts” have said the markets we will not reach a bottom until we reach a point of widespread capitulation, where investors sell, basically giving up and losing hope of recouping the lost gains.  When this happens, it can be very dramatic with a large, very rapid downward swing in the markets; similar to a big bang at the end of a fireworks show.  Do we need to experience capitulation before the markets move higher?  We would argue the answer is no.  Instead of a big bang, the markets might quietly start to ascend.  For those that did sell when the market was lower and are waiting for a major drop, they could miss out on the rebound. 

Second Half

What will the second half of the year bring?  Stock markets making a move higher in the first week of July give reason for optimism.  There are signs the market may be oversold. Economic growth does appear to be slowing but there are indications that things are not as bad as they may seem or are being reported.  Consumer spending, while slowing, seems to remain mostly intact.  Anecdotally, TSA reported airline traffic is exceeding pre-pandemic levels showing there is still an appetite for travel despite higher ticket prices from increased demand and higher fuel prices.  The June employment report, which was released Friday, exceeded expectations reflecting a still robust labor market and continuing levels of low employment.  A recent CNBC survey of strategists from 16 major Wall Street investment banks showed that all expected the stock market to be higher by the end of the year, compared to where it is now.  History does not always repeat itself but it is worth noting that the last time the market was down this much, in 1970, the S&P 500 returned 26.5% in the second half of the year. 

Inflation continues to be a major theme in the markets, coupled with possible Federal Reserve action.  Current expectations are for the Fed to raise short-term interest rates by another 75 basis points, or 0.75%, during their next meeting at the end of this month.  Looking out further, rate hikes of 50 basis points (0.50%) at both the September and December meetings are now anticipated bringing the Federal Funds rate to 3.50% by the end of the year.  We do not have the same optimism for bonds as we do for stocks since higher interest rates cause bond prices to drop.  Somewhat surprisingly, there is a growing probability being priced into the market that the Fed will lower interest rates sometime in 2023 to combat slower growth.  If that does occur, the Fed may be able to declare victory in their inflation fight even if it comes at the expense of pushing the economy into a recession.  Much can happen in coming months, so we are reluctant to put a great deal of confidence into such a scenario taking place. 

Looking Ahead

As we have mentioned numerous times, whether or not we enter a recession might be a moot point for the stock market since a recession may already be priced in.  We will find out later this month if second quarter GDP was negative, which would put us into a “technical” recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  If that is the case, GDP growth is only slight negative so while it meets the definition of a recession it would be very shallow in comparison to past recessions.

This coming week will bring key inflation reports, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which are expected to remain elevated.  We are going to go out on a limb here and predict that the CPI comes in a little lower than expectations since energy prices and housing costs pulled back a bit during June. It will not be a dramatic change from what we have seen the past few months but might be enough to give some hope that inflation has peaked.  Even if this is the case, we expect inflation to remain elevated for at least the next several months.  Unless the CPI report largely surprises to the upside, it is doubtful it will impact expected Federal Reserve action at the end of the month. 

One thing is for certain, even if we are bouncing off the lows and on an upward trajectory there will again be times in the future where we have substantial market pullbacks and we experience bear markets.  Be prepared for these by ensuring you have a solid, unflappable income plan in place to maintain your lifestyle and your investments are properly allocated for your level of risk tolerance.  Make sure your retirement plan can outlast any fireworks in the markets. 

Have a wonderful week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Independence Day, also called Fourth of July, is the annual celebration of nationhood. The day commemorates the passage of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776. As we are blessed to celebrate Independence Day at Secured Retirement, we take a moment to pause on what the holiday and this country means to our families and clients.  

Congress has and will continue to make decisions that impact most families in their economical livelihood near and at retirement. Our team keeps a close watch on Congressional decisions to plan morally, legally, and ethically the role taxes will play in retirement. The Fourth of July is also a mid-year time to review and adjust retirement strategies based on current and foreseeable legislation changes and learnings shared this spring by former U.S. Comptroller David Walker’s presentation.  

With uncertainties to the impact of rising inflation and market volatility we will be hosting additional webinars with guest speakers from Secured Retirement and our partner network. These focused topics are geared toward better understanding strategies to implement what you can control. We hope you will join us and refer Secured Retirement to those that may be seeking retirement planning.  

May we also suggest other great Fourth of July moments filled with recipes from our Secured Retirement cookbook including Never Fail Pie Crust & Apple Pie and Raspberry Fudge Ribbon Pie on page 55 among the favorite recipes by our clients.  We wish you an amazing summer, hopefully enjoying the freedoms our great country brings.  

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Head I Win, Tails You Lose

I remember arguing with my folks about having to do chores when I was a child. In one instance my father cut a deal with me where he would flip a coin with the outcome determining whether or not I had to do the chores I was arguing about.  He told me if it came up heads he won but if it was tails I would lose.  My naivety at a relatively young age coupled with my insistence on a quick win deterred me from stopping to think about what was being proposed. Obviously this was a guaranteed winning situation for my father and a losing situation for me. It is very possible we are facing a similar situation with the economy today – one where there seem to be two possible outcomes, neither of which are desirable. 

Last week the stock markets performed strongly with the S&P 500 moving higher by more than 6%.  This was a welcomed respite in what had been a rather brutal month in the market, especially after the sharp losses of the prior week. Absent any major catalysts for this move, it may be that after three weeks of negative markets there might have been some selling “exhaustion,” and investors decided it was a good time to buy.  The S&P 500 is now out of bear market territory but still sharply lower year-to-date.  Time will tell if this ends up being a bear market rally and we see other moves lower or if we did experience the bottom and this is the beginning of a sustained rebound. 

There are indications corporate executives are viewing the recent negative sentiment in the stock market with caution and may alter expansion and hiring plans, helping to reduce inflation.  If this results in lower inflation, there becomes the possibility the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates as much as currently expected and perhaps even start to lower rates during the later part of 2023.  This would be a major turn of events compared to two weeks ago when it was feared the Fed would need to raise rates aggressively over the next couple of years. This fear sent markets reeling two weeks ago after the Fed raised rates 75 basis points for the first time in 28 years.  Lending credence to this theory was the notable drop in bond yields, including the 10-year U.S. Treasury pulling back from its multi-year high near 3.5% all the way down to near 3.0%. This may not sound like much, but it is a rather dramatic move for fixed income markets, which tend to be a stronger indicator of the future than the stock market.  

But if the Fed does not need to raise interest rates as much as currently anticipated, doesn’t that mean we can avoid a recession and everything will be good?  Not exactly – corporations cutting back on hiring or expansion could push the economy into a recession on its own. The silver lining being the Fed does not need to raise rates as much as thought during this cycle. However, if this does not occur and corporations continue to spend money and expand, which we hope they do, then the Fed will most likely find themselves in a situation where they will be forced to continue to raise interest rates aggressively, which also has a high probability of causing a recession.  Hence, why this appears to be a “heads I win, tails you lose” situation in which there is not a desirable outcome.

Recession Watch

The fact we will face a recession seems to be the consensus amongst many economists and market analysts with the question really being “when,” this year or next (or possibly 2024), and not “if.”  The stock market reaching bear market territory, commodity prices falling, and the bond yield curve inverting all seem to be signs that a recession is imminent.  But this reminds us of a quip from economist Paul Samuelson back in the 1960s, where he stated, “The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions;” meaning the stock market often gives false signals. 

To consider an alternate outcome and play a game of “what-if” – what if the market has already priced in the worst scenarios?  What if energy prices continue to drop?  What if we somehow avoid a recession?  What if inflation does quickly abate?  What if the Fed does not need to raise interest rates substantially from here?  What if corporate earnings continue to grow?  A few weeks ago these scenarios individually may not have seemed plausible but now there is a growing inkling of hope they all could be. Energy prices dropped last week due to expectations for weaker demand going forward. This is turn will have a major impact on reported, and actual, inflation.  We are not saying this is what will occur, but merely stating possible scenarios. If this were to occur we would expect a very positive reaction in the stock market, which could happen quickly and overly cautious investors might find themselves missing out. 

Looking Ahead

We are faced with the prospects of an economic slowdown or recession, caused either by market forces or aggressive action from the Federal Reserve.  The Fed no doubt is still trying to engineer a “soft landing” and avoid a recession but this is likely to be outside their control.  Fed action may have little impact on some of the larger factors contributing to inflation, such as energy prices and continued supply chain issues.  The “what if” scenarios given above would be the very best outcomes but they also may be the least likely at this point.  Hopefully those odds improve in coming weeks. 

This week marks the end of the month and end of the quarter so there is the potential for added volatility, especially early in the week, but given what we’ve experienced this year may not be too much out of the ordinary. The end of the week will most likely be quiet as we coast into the holiday weekend.  When it comes to having a solid income and investment plan, be sure to position yourself with the best chances of winning and not find yourself facing a no-win situation. We are here to help you increase your odds of success. 

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260

Street Cred

“Street cred” is a slang term used to express acceptance and credibility (or “cred” for short) amongst the general public, most often used in reference to young people in an urban environment.  CNBC uses the word play to provide short biographies for their guests, with the “Street” referring to Wall Street.  Gaining credibility amongst your peers and the general public takes time and can be lost quickly.  The Federal Reserve had been losing credibility by not taking enough action to combat inflation, the likes of which we have not experienced in over 40 years. 

This began to change this week when the Federal Reserve, more precisely the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC or commonly referred to as “The Fed”), raised the Fed Funds target rate by three-quarters of one percent (0.75%), the first time they have raised rates by that amount since 1994.  The move was somewhat surprising since the previous week members of the FOMC had indicated they planned to raise rates by one-half of a percent (0.50%). After the hotter than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showing consumers were very concerned about inflation the Fed decided to up the ante and raise rates even more.  The decision to pivot at the last minute to a more aggressive rate hike underscores the general concern that inflation is worse that policymakers had anticipated, but the move helped restore confidence the Fed will do what is necessary to combat inflation, even if it means causing a recession. 

Acting quickly to rein in inflation may cause a faster economic slowdown since tighter monetary policy, in the form of higher interest rates, reduces the likelihood businesses and consumers will borrow money to make purchases since the cost to borrow is greater. We see this in the housing market where the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is now 5.78%, compared to 2.93% one year ago.  This difference in interest rates raises the monthly mortgage payment by 30-40% for an average priced home in most markets, making home purchases less affordable for many buyers, especially since incomes have not kept pace over the same time.   

The Fed is now projecting short-term rates to be 3.5% by year-end; an increase of 1.5% since projections were last released in April. With the latest Fed move taking the federal funds target range to 1.5% – 1.75%, the latest projections show rates hikes totaling nearly 2% are now expected between now and the end of the year.  Even if inflation falls from current levels of more than 8%, the Fed will need to continue to raise rates in future years until inflation is within their 2-3% target.  The Fed expects GDP growth to be only 1.7% each of the next two years and is projecting unemployment to rise as a result of slowing economic growth.  Slightly higher unemployment should reduce some of the wage pressures which are currently contributing to inflation but many other inflationary pressures exist, including high energy prices. 

Dancing in the Streets

The reaction to the Fed’s actions did not give investors reason to dance in the streets with markets, both stock and bond, whipsawing last week.  Initially stocks moved higher after the Fed announcement and Fed Chairman’s Powell’s post-meeting comments where he stated the Fed is not trying to deliberately cause a recession and they do not see a broader slowdown in the economy. The gains quickly turned to rather large losses on Thursday after there was a broader assessment of the economic conditions and signs of a slowdown.  Central banks around the world also raised interest rates, including Switzerland who had not previously raised rates in over 15 years, placing further pressure on global equities. 

The bond markets also reacted in dramatic fashion. After a sharp run-up in yields leading up to the Fed meetings, with the U.S 10-year Treasury yield reaching 3.48% its highest level since April 2011, interest rates pulled back about 0.25% across most maturities.  At one point last week the yield curve “inverted” with 2-year Treasuries yielding more than 10-year Treasuries. Historically a prolonged yield curve inversion has been an early signal of an impending recession, but last week’s inversion was very brief. The yield curve remains fairly flat, and perhaps “humped” with 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields higher than 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, implying economic uncertainty and fears of a slowdown. 

Looking Ahead

Despite a very difficult stock market and economic challenges that lie ahead, there are reasons for optimism.  Inflows into equity funds remain robust and are expected to continue in earnest with the end of the quarter on the short horizon.  Many companies across various industries highlighted continued demand during comments made over the past week. Depending upon which metrics you follow, certain pockets of the market are now considered to be oversold and have the potential for a bounce, even if it is short-term. 

The Fed has indicated that another 75 basis point rate hike is on the table, and at this time expected, at their next meeting in July. We expect interest rates to continue to move higher, pushing bond prices lower, but are becoming more optimistic on forward prospects for the stock market.  Even with the S&P 500 being 23% lower year-to-date it remains higher than two years ago and 25% higher than three years ago.  If you have cash available, this might be a good opportunity to be dollar cost averaging.

The volatility and gyrations of the stock market can be stressful, which is why it is important you have a solid plan in place and are sticking with it. It is during times such as this that most investors react emotionally and make errors which have the potential to impact their future savings and possibly their lifestyle.  If the market volatility is causing you worry, please reach out to us so we can ensure you are comfortable with your risk level and position your portfolio accordingly.  

Have a great week!

Nathan Zeller, CFA, CFP®

Chief Investment Strategist
Secured Retirement
nzeller@securedretirements.com

Please contact us if you would like to review your individual financial plan or learn how the TaxSmart™ Retirement Program can help you.   

info@securedretirements.com
Office phone # 952-460-3260